Scientific Explanation of Why Patriots are Innocent

The New England Patriots have been accused of cheating for deflating footballs before the start of the AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts. Let's take a scientific approach to determine whether the Patriots could have cheated or if elements outside of their control have led to a false positive for cheating.  Let's also accept that I went overboard on this analysis, but, hey, it's not often I get to combine Chemistry and sports.

Qualification: I graduated with a Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering degree from Rice University and work as a senior research engineer for a large oil and gas company, so there is a basis for these arguments.  I am an avid Houston sports fan and despise Boston for all the success its sports teams have achieved this millennium.  That being said I cannot stand idly by while someone is falsely accused of cheating.  It is virtually impossible for the Patriots to have deflated the footballs intentionally, given the information available to date.

By rule, NFL footballs must be inflated to between 12.5-13.5 psig by the officials before game time.  12 footballs are given to each team and another set kept for the kicking game.   The Patriots have stated they prefer their footballs at 12.5 psig, so I will use that as a starting point. Reports are mixed, but let's assume the footballs were deflated by 2 psi, to 10.5 psig, when measured by the officials after the game.

Before we get started, I just have to point out that in the scientific calculations, temperature and pressure must be converted to absolute values, as in amounts above zero.  Inflated pressure is typically reported in gauge pressure, which is psi above atmospheric pressure of 14.7 psi. Temperature must be converted from Fahrenheit (F) to Kelvin (K), which is the degrees above absolute zero.

12.5 psig = 27.2 psia
10.5 psig = 25.2 psia
70 F = 293.15 K
50 F = 283.15 K

1. Magnitude of Change - 7%
The press is overreacting to the 2 psi change in pressure.  Viewed on an absolute scale, this is only a 7% reduction in pressure, so it is not going to be hard to build a credible scientific argument to explain why a variable would change by 7%.

((27.2-25.2)/27.2)*100 = 7%

2. Measurement Error
Measurement error in controlled lab environments is typically +/- 3%, due to a combination of inherent inaccuracy in the measurement device and human error.  I gather the NFL was not using the high quality measurement devices used in laboratories, was not standardizing the conditions between measurements, and was just sticking a needle in the football without accounting for air escaping. Also, I am assuming that different people took the pressure measurements before and after the game, which, in and of itself, adds an incredible amount of uncertainty.  Do we even know if the same gauge was used?  Let's just say the quality of measurement being between +/- 7% would not hold up in court.  

3. Temperature Effects
An equation of state can be used to relate  how changes in one state variable affect another.  For this simple problem, let's use the simplest equation of state: The Ideal Gas Law:

PV=nRT
n is the number of molecules of air (otherwise known as moles)
R is a constant

The temperature dropped by 3.4% (293.15 F locker room -> 283.15 F outdoors), which explains a 0.9 psi reduction in pressure to 11.6 psia.

I have read in several articles that "it wasn't even that cold outside."  This is faulty reporting without understanding the facts.  The 3.4% reduction in temperature accounts for HALF of the reduction in pressure.  That's huge.

4. Air Escaping
I have not read a single article discussing the impact of air escaping the  football.  In fact this article (http://www.wcsh6.com/story/weather/2015/01/20/inflate-gate-weather-roll/22065861/)  which does a good job applying the Ideal Gas Law, completely omits the loss of air.  Remember, in PV=nRT, "n" is the number of molecules.  If air escapes the football it will have a direct impact on the pressure.

Footballs are not perfectly sealed.  They will lose air over time.  When world-class athletes  squeeze the football on every single play, they apply an external pressure to the ball, which forces some of the air to escape.  Thus, there will be less molecules in the ball by the end of the game, reducing the internal air pressure of the football.

Per our equation above, only 4% of the molecules would have to escape in order to account for the rest of the 7% reduction in pressure.  I cannot estimate how much air would escape, but it is not hard to believe 4% of the initial air inside the footballs would escape over a 3 hour game.

5. Football Preparation
Belichick stated that, during their trial run, the air pressure increased by 1 psi after "roughing up the footballs."  This is legal, and every team does it.  Equipment managers rough up the footballs to give it a better grip, right before the footballs are handed to the officials.  Bill Nye the Science Guy went onto Good Morning America (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ-onepOA4g) and stated that Belichick's claim is unfounded.  I disagree.

Both Belichick and Brady have stated the equipment managers rough up the footballs right before the officials inflate the footballs.  Roughing up the footballs involves rubbing the footballs aggressively for several minutes I would imagine.  This creates friction on the football, which causes the football to heat up.  Do this experiment: Rub your hands together.  What happens? They get hot really quickly.  Imagine doing that for several minutes how hot the football must get.  In fact, we have evidence to estimate this:

Belichick stated that, during their trial run, the air pressure increased by 1 psi after roughing up the footballs.  That correlates to a temperature rise of 20 F.  (Note: this assumes the air pressure is 10 psig when roughing up the footballs.)  Why is that so important?  Because the balls are inflated IMMEDIATELY AFTER roughing up the balls.  If the balls are inflated to 12.5 psig when the temperature internal to the football is 90 F (20 F above ambient), then the initial pressure measurement is artificially high.  That really means there is a 40F drop in temperature between the initial point of pressurization and the temperature outside.  A 40 F drop in temperature would account for 1.9 psi drop in pressure, and that is without taking into account measurement error or air escaping the football.

5. Equilibrium
Bill Belichick covered this beautifully.  He states it takes 1-2 hours for each football to reach its original pressure after roughing up the football, thus reaching equilibrium.  Equilibrium is the point at which the process has reached steady state and is no longer changing.  All of these measurements are worthless if they are not taken at equilibrium at the exact same temperatures and pressures.

6. Why were the Colts footballs still within the acceptable air pressure limits?
I have not heard anything about the Colts footballs, but I assume they were tested and found to be within the 12.5-13.5 psig limits.  This is all speculation, but maybe the Colts inflated their footballs to the 13.5 psig limit (or more).  As I wrote above, the preparation activities and time between preparation and pressurizing the footballs is crucial.  Maybe there was some difference between the two teams' processes.  The Colts certainly ran fewer offensive plays, so maybe less air escaped from the footballs.

7. Conclusion
There is overwhelming evidence that the natural causes of the temperature dropping, air escaping, and friction on the football are the reasons the measured pressure on the football dropped by 2 psi, or 7%, over a 3 hour period in which the measurement conditions were never the same, introducing significant amount of uncertainty.  In the end, this is just a minuscule change in pressure that could be a result of a myriad factors.  It is highly unlikely that the Patriots did this intentionally, given that the officials during the game could not tell the difference between the "inflated" and "deflated" footballs.

Week 6 Props

I have never looked at NFL props before, but here is the list of bets I would in theory make.  Let's see how it turns out.

NFL Prop Bets 10-16-11

Owen Daniels over 4.5 receptions

Doesn’t he get 5 receptions easily?  Who else is Matt Schaub going to throw to?

Texans Over Ravens (+300)

I feel like either the Texans are either going to get blown out or come out of Baltimore with a win.  I figure the +300 to win is a better bet than the +8 points at -110.  It’s nice having the better QB in a matchup.  Joe Flacco is going to be on his ass all day.  Crap, did I just bet on Gary Kubiak to pull an upset?

Texans/Ravens – Longest touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (-115)

Torrey Smith 50 yard TD.  Count it.  Also, Arian Foster could bust one.  Or Jacoby Jones lol.  Of course I’m just kidding about Jacoby.  Why is there no Torrey Smith over/under prop?  He’s going against Jason Allen all day!  I’ll just start him on my fantasy team to make up for it.

Packers/Rams – Longest play UNDER 47.5 yards (-115)

Isn’t that a really long play?  Also, I don’t know how longest touchdown of the game works, but why would the Steelers/Jags longest touchdown be 40.5 yards while the Packers/Rams is 47.5?  The Steelers are all about the big play receivers (Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders).  Maybe I should bet that 40.5 yard TD for the Steelers.  Also, MJD could bust one.

Patriots over 31 points (-115)

30+ points for 13 straight weeks, they are playing at home, and it’s the Cowboys defense.  This is like stealing money.

Jaguars under 14.5 points (-115)

The Jaguars score more than 10 points in this game… how?  I love that 0.5.

Blaine Gabbert UNDER 16.5 completions (-105)

He has never completed more than 16 passes in his career.  He’s doing it against the Steelers?

6 point teaser – Steelers -6.5 over Jags, Packers -8 over Rams

Jags and Rams are horrible teams going on the road against 2 of the best teams in the league.

6 point teaser – Bills +9 over Giants, Raiders -1 over Browns

No way the Raiders lose to the Browns.  That Bills-Giants game is going to be close.  The Giants’ defense is horrible.  At the very least a backdoor cover is coming.

49ers vs Lions - Will Either Team Score in the First 6 1/2 Minutes of the Game?  No (+110)

The Lions are slow starters, both defenses are solid, and the 49ers’ QB is Alex Smith.  I guess Alex Smith could throw a pick six on his first possession.  That’s my only worry.

Texans-Raiders Preview

Thank God the Texans beat the Steelers last week to get to 3-1.  We are incredibly vulnerable the next 3 weeks without Andre Johnson.  Raiders, @Ravens, @Titans.  We could legitimately go 0-3 without Andre, and I wouldn't even be that mad.  You can't salvage 2-5, but 3-4 is doable.  Still, we want to have a winning record going into the bye week, so winning our only home game would be huge.

I would argue Andre is the non-QB MVP basically every year.  I can't think of anyone else that means more to his offense.  Just look at that Dolphins game from week 2.  The Texans were in the middle of their typical collapse when Andre destroyed his DB for a wide open touchdown to give us a 10 point lead that we never relinquished.  We easily could have lost that game without him.  He does something like that in basically all of our wins.  It's going to be really hard to win without him.

Andre went down against the Steelers with 6:20 to go in the 2nd quarter, and our offense never recovered.  Schaub did not complete a single pass to another WR after Andre's departure, and we went 3-and-out on 4 of our final 5 possessions.  The only sustained drive was the amazing Foster-Daniels drive that resulted in the game-winning 42-yard touchdown run by Arian.  How sweet was that when Foster juked out Polamalu?  I know I went crazy.  Arian is the MVP of this team for the next 3 games, not even Matt Schaub.  We need outbursts like his run against the Steelers if we are going to have any chance.

Adrian Peterson is far and away the best RB in the game, but there's no clear number 2 if you ask me.  I would say the race for number 2 comes down to Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and LeSean McCoy.  There are arguments to be made for each one, but today we get a unique opportunity to get a read on where those first 2 guys stand.  The Texans and Raiders are pretty even, and they are the lone playmakers out there that can really make a difference in the game.  It's time for Arian to step up and show he belongs in that tier of RB.

The Texans are better than the Raiders with Andre Johnson, but without him I would argue we are a little worse.  The home field advantage brings us back to even.  Schaub is much better than Jason Campbell, but Campbell has better receivers to work with.  Not to mention the fact that the Raiders strategy is to run the ball and set up the deep pass.  Are you really looking forward to our secondary defending 4-5 deep bombs this game?  No, you're gonna hold your breath and pray.  The Texans do have Owen Daniels to work the middle of the field, and the Raiders have a bad secondary (22nd in the league) that was not helped by the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha.  Let's just hope Arian can outplay Darren, or else the Texans could be in for a long day.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Texans 24
Campbell throws 3 30+ yard passes

P.S. If anyone doubts Arian Foster's greatness just watch these Youtube videos:
Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z752oTJdwgQ
42-yard TD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3r-MpG_0JU&feature=related
Polamalu juke: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfm8dJF7CpY

Solving the NFL Kickoff Problem

I am tired of all this talk about the new NFL kickoff rule, and I have decided to solve all of the NFL's problems.  I agree that the old rule didn't work because players built up too much speed, and this resulted in too many injuries.  There are two ways to cut down on injuries.  The first is to decrease the number of hits by increasing the number of touchbacks.  That's boring, though.  I say you cut down on injuries by giving the players less distance to run and pick up speed.  Instead of letting players start running 5 or 10 yards before the ball is kicked, just make them stand at the 30 until the ball is kicked.  It's the only play in football where the offense is allowed to move forward before a play starts.  Why should one team's players get a running start at another team's players.  That seems destined to cause injuries.  So there you go NFL, keep the ball and the players at the 30 yard line.  Problem solved.

Texans Switching to 3-4 Defense

I am confused by what Wade Phillips is trying to do with the Texans' defense.  Clearly the defense needs a complete overhaul because of how bad it was last year.  I just don’t know if the change to the 3-4 is the answer.  The problem is that the successful teams actually have the personnel to run the 3-4 whereas the Texans do not.  It seems to me as though our defense has 4 starting defensive linemen and 3 starting linebackers, so why don’t we run the 4-3?  Maybe Wade Phillips sees things differently, but I think he has decided to fit his players to his scheme instead of his scheme fitting his players. 

I understand the basic principle behind the 3-4, which is that there is an ability for more complex pass rush schemes as a result of basically 2 outside linebackers that could rush at any given time as opposed to a 4th defensive lineman that will rush all the time.  However, this complex scheme is nullified by the fact that teams know Mario Williams is going to rush every single time.  If teams know that Mario is going to rush they will throw quick slants all day to the receiver on his side.  Phillips is trying to move Mario around so that the defense has to adjust to him on every play.  The last time we tried to use this same strategy was his rookie season, and it failed miserably.  It turned out that Mario could only handle rushing from the same side every time.  He got too confused by the multiple positions.  Now we are asking him to change positions entirely to OLB and then also move throughout the linebackers.  How could this possibly turn out well?  Here’s a good rule to live by.  Don’t mess with the best thing about your defense: Mario rushing from DE. 

Now for the second biggest problem with the Texans’ new defense: Nose Tackles.  I would argue that NT is the most important position in a 3-4 defense.  Great NTs like Kris Jenkins, Shaun Rogers, and BJ Raji, are massive human beings between 325 and 360 pounds.  They clog up the middle and stop the run by taking up multiple blockers.  The Texans’ Shaun Cody and Earl Mitchell weight 304 and 291 pounds, respectively.  They are much better suited to play DT in a 4-3 defense.  Not only are they underweight, but Cody and Mitchell have done nothing in their careers so far to show that they can be anything other than an average DTs.  I worry that teams will run up the middle on us all day.

The final problem is that the Texans have too many question marks in the front 7.  We are moving Mario Williams outside and pushing Brian Cushing inside even though Cushing was horrible last year on the inside.  It makes no sense why we would move our best DE and OLB to other positions where they may not be as good.  Demeco Ryans is coming off a bad Achilles’ heel injury, and it will be hard for him to immediately come back and be the Demeco of old.  Connor Barwin is also coming off injury and has never proven he can be a starter.  J.J. Watt is a rookie that we expect to immediately plug into the starting lineup and play all 16 games.  Outside of the front 7 we also have question marks with Kareem Jackson being horrible and Glover Quinn learning a new position in Strong Safety. 

I count 8 question marks (DE, NT, 2 OLB, 2 MLB, DB, SS) out of 11 positions on our defense.  If we stayed in the 4-3 we would be down to 4 question marks (OLB, MLB, DB, SS).  Doesn’t it seem like we should minimize our risk and stay with the 4-3?  Not to mention we could have drafted Nick Fairley over J.J. Watt to shore up our shaky DTs.

Quick Notes About The Draft

I don't think Cam Newton will be very good.  Same goes for Blaine Gabbert.  Newton never seemed to make any NFL plays in college, and I never thought his arm  looked too good.  He's going to get wrecked constantly on Carolina.  I see Carolina picking another QB in the first round in 4 years.  Do you know where Blaine Gabbert came from?  It seems like he would have been a 6th round pick last year, and after one mediocre season he is supposed to be the next Elway.  I don't think so.  He's David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Tim Couch reincarnate.

My favorite QB in this draft is Ryan Mallet.  He just looks like a QB, and he reminds me of Sam Bradford.  I know this sounds like I'm Mel Kiper, but he's big, tall, accurate, played in a pro-style offense, and had success in college.  What's not to like?  His attitude, apparently.  Whatever, Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler have bad attitudes, and they appear to be doing alright.  It's better to have a bad attitude than no attitude like Matt Schaub.

I don't really know what Jake Locker is going to be like in the pros, but I will say that he never did anything that impressed me in college.  I wouldn't pick him.  Andy Dalton did well in college, but I'm not sure he's built for the pros.  He reminds me of Colt McCoy.  If McCoy makes it big, then so will Dalton.

Why is Nick Fairley not a top 3 pick?  He was the most dominant defensive player I saw in college football last year.  I have never seen anyone make so many clutch plays in big games.  He basically won that Alabama game single-handedly.  When the first mock drafts were coming out he was a top 3 pick, so what changed?  I'm terrified the Titans are gonna pick him, and we're going to have to deal with him for the next 10 years.

It's okay, though, because we'll have Aldon Smith, or whatever other crappy transitional 3-4 DE/OLB the Texans pick.  Here is what the Texans should do with no exceptions:  Trade their 2nd and 4th round picks (or whatever it takes) to move up and take Patrick Peterson.  Just once I'd like to have a dominant secondary player on the Texans.  By all accounts, Peterson is a virtual lock to be a shutdown corner.  However, there's no way we'll do that.  We'll probably pick Aldon Smith or even move down in the draft to get some extra draft picks.  That would be a big move for us because you can never have enough 4th round tight ends...

One more thing.  If the Texans draft Aldon Smith over Da'Quan Bowers, I'm gonna kill myself.  Oh, but Aldon Smith has upside and could be the next DeMarcus Ware you say.  Bullshit.  He's going to be the next Aaron Maybin, and you know it.  Da'Quan Bowers was the best DE in college football last year.  If you get him at 11, you should count your blessings.

Players I like or at least think they should go higher than they are currently going in mock drafts:
Julio Jones
Robert Quinn
Prince Amukamara
Da'Quan Bowers
Mark Ingram
Nick Fairley
Patrick Peterson
Ryan Mallet
Ryan Kerrigan

Players I don't like or think are overrated:
Cam Newton
Blaine Gabbert
Marcell Dareus
Cameron Jordan
Corey Liuget

All that being said, I have no clue who is going to be good in the NFL, and neither do you.  It's all one big crapshoot.

MLB Playoff Thread

The Yankees looked good, and the Twins had their typical collapse.  I don't know why the Yankees dominate the Twins so much.

As for the most clutch pitcher in baseball argument:
CC Sabathia: 4 Runs, lucky win
Cliff Lee: 1 ER, solid win
Roy Halladay:  No Hitter.

Enough said.

Also, looks like the Rangers might be just a bit frisky, Ben.  Of course, we'll see what happens when they don't have Cliff Lee pitching.