Scientific Explanation of Why Patriots are Innocent

The New England Patriots have been accused of cheating for deflating footballs before the start of the AFC Championship game against the Indianapolis Colts. Let's take a scientific approach to determine whether the Patriots could have cheated or if elements outside of their control have led to a false positive for cheating.  Let's also accept that I went overboard on this analysis, but, hey, it's not often I get to combine Chemistry and sports.

Qualification: I graduated with a Chemical & Biomolecular Engineering degree from Rice University and work as a senior research engineer for a large oil and gas company, so there is a basis for these arguments.  I am an avid Houston sports fan and despise Boston for all the success its sports teams have achieved this millennium.  That being said I cannot stand idly by while someone is falsely accused of cheating.  It is virtually impossible for the Patriots to have deflated the footballs intentionally, given the information available to date.

By rule, NFL footballs must be inflated to between 12.5-13.5 psig by the officials before game time.  12 footballs are given to each team and another set kept for the kicking game.   The Patriots have stated they prefer their footballs at 12.5 psig, so I will use that as a starting point. Reports are mixed, but let's assume the footballs were deflated by 2 psi, to 10.5 psig, when measured by the officials after the game.

Before we get started, I just have to point out that in the scientific calculations, temperature and pressure must be converted to absolute values, as in amounts above zero.  Inflated pressure is typically reported in gauge pressure, which is psi above atmospheric pressure of 14.7 psi. Temperature must be converted from Fahrenheit (F) to Kelvin (K), which is the degrees above absolute zero.

12.5 psig = 27.2 psia
10.5 psig = 25.2 psia
70 F = 293.15 K
50 F = 283.15 K

1. Magnitude of Change - 7%
The press is overreacting to the 2 psi change in pressure.  Viewed on an absolute scale, this is only a 7% reduction in pressure, so it is not going to be hard to build a credible scientific argument to explain why a variable would change by 7%.

((27.2-25.2)/27.2)*100 = 7%

2. Measurement Error
Measurement error in controlled lab environments is typically +/- 3%, due to a combination of inherent inaccuracy in the measurement device and human error.  I gather the NFL was not using the high quality measurement devices used in laboratories, was not standardizing the conditions between measurements, and was just sticking a needle in the football without accounting for air escaping. Also, I am assuming that different people took the pressure measurements before and after the game, which, in and of itself, adds an incredible amount of uncertainty.  Do we even know if the same gauge was used?  Let's just say the quality of measurement being between +/- 7% would not hold up in court.  

3. Temperature Effects
An equation of state can be used to relate  how changes in one state variable affect another.  For this simple problem, let's use the simplest equation of state: The Ideal Gas Law:

PV=nRT
n is the number of molecules of air (otherwise known as moles)
R is a constant

The temperature dropped by 3.4% (293.15 F locker room -> 283.15 F outdoors), which explains a 0.9 psi reduction in pressure to 11.6 psia.

I have read in several articles that "it wasn't even that cold outside."  This is faulty reporting without understanding the facts.  The 3.4% reduction in temperature accounts for HALF of the reduction in pressure.  That's huge.

4. Air Escaping
I have not read a single article discussing the impact of air escaping the  football.  In fact this article (http://www.wcsh6.com/story/weather/2015/01/20/inflate-gate-weather-roll/22065861/)  which does a good job applying the Ideal Gas Law, completely omits the loss of air.  Remember, in PV=nRT, "n" is the number of molecules.  If air escapes the football it will have a direct impact on the pressure.

Footballs are not perfectly sealed.  They will lose air over time.  When world-class athletes  squeeze the football on every single play, they apply an external pressure to the ball, which forces some of the air to escape.  Thus, there will be less molecules in the ball by the end of the game, reducing the internal air pressure of the football.

Per our equation above, only 4% of the molecules would have to escape in order to account for the rest of the 7% reduction in pressure.  I cannot estimate how much air would escape, but it is not hard to believe 4% of the initial air inside the footballs would escape over a 3 hour game.

5. Football Preparation
Belichick stated that, during their trial run, the air pressure increased by 1 psi after "roughing up the footballs."  This is legal, and every team does it.  Equipment managers rough up the footballs to give it a better grip, right before the footballs are handed to the officials.  Bill Nye the Science Guy went onto Good Morning America (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ-onepOA4g) and stated that Belichick's claim is unfounded.  I disagree.

Both Belichick and Brady have stated the equipment managers rough up the footballs right before the officials inflate the footballs.  Roughing up the footballs involves rubbing the footballs aggressively for several minutes I would imagine.  This creates friction on the football, which causes the football to heat up.  Do this experiment: Rub your hands together.  What happens? They get hot really quickly.  Imagine doing that for several minutes how hot the football must get.  In fact, we have evidence to estimate this:

Belichick stated that, during their trial run, the air pressure increased by 1 psi after roughing up the footballs.  That correlates to a temperature rise of 20 F.  (Note: this assumes the air pressure is 10 psig when roughing up the footballs.)  Why is that so important?  Because the balls are inflated IMMEDIATELY AFTER roughing up the balls.  If the balls are inflated to 12.5 psig when the temperature internal to the football is 90 F (20 F above ambient), then the initial pressure measurement is artificially high.  That really means there is a 40F drop in temperature between the initial point of pressurization and the temperature outside.  A 40 F drop in temperature would account for 1.9 psi drop in pressure, and that is without taking into account measurement error or air escaping the football.

5. Equilibrium
Bill Belichick covered this beautifully.  He states it takes 1-2 hours for each football to reach its original pressure after roughing up the football, thus reaching equilibrium.  Equilibrium is the point at which the process has reached steady state and is no longer changing.  All of these measurements are worthless if they are not taken at equilibrium at the exact same temperatures and pressures.

6. Why were the Colts footballs still within the acceptable air pressure limits?
I have not heard anything about the Colts footballs, but I assume they were tested and found to be within the 12.5-13.5 psig limits.  This is all speculation, but maybe the Colts inflated their footballs to the 13.5 psig limit (or more).  As I wrote above, the preparation activities and time between preparation and pressurizing the footballs is crucial.  Maybe there was some difference between the two teams' processes.  The Colts certainly ran fewer offensive plays, so maybe less air escaped from the footballs.

7. Conclusion
There is overwhelming evidence that the natural causes of the temperature dropping, air escaping, and friction on the football are the reasons the measured pressure on the football dropped by 2 psi, or 7%, over a 3 hour period in which the measurement conditions were never the same, introducing significant amount of uncertainty.  In the end, this is just a minuscule change in pressure that could be a result of a myriad factors.  It is highly unlikely that the Patriots did this intentionally, given that the officials during the game could not tell the difference between the "inflated" and "deflated" footballs.

Week 6 Props

I have never looked at NFL props before, but here is the list of bets I would in theory make.  Let's see how it turns out.

NFL Prop Bets 10-16-11

Owen Daniels over 4.5 receptions

Doesn’t he get 5 receptions easily?  Who else is Matt Schaub going to throw to?

Texans Over Ravens (+300)

I feel like either the Texans are either going to get blown out or come out of Baltimore with a win.  I figure the +300 to win is a better bet than the +8 points at -110.  It’s nice having the better QB in a matchup.  Joe Flacco is going to be on his ass all day.  Crap, did I just bet on Gary Kubiak to pull an upset?

Texans/Ravens – Longest touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (-115)

Torrey Smith 50 yard TD.  Count it.  Also, Arian Foster could bust one.  Or Jacoby Jones lol.  Of course I’m just kidding about Jacoby.  Why is there no Torrey Smith over/under prop?  He’s going against Jason Allen all day!  I’ll just start him on my fantasy team to make up for it.

Packers/Rams – Longest play UNDER 47.5 yards (-115)

Isn’t that a really long play?  Also, I don’t know how longest touchdown of the game works, but why would the Steelers/Jags longest touchdown be 40.5 yards while the Packers/Rams is 47.5?  The Steelers are all about the big play receivers (Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders).  Maybe I should bet that 40.5 yard TD for the Steelers.  Also, MJD could bust one.

Patriots over 31 points (-115)

30+ points for 13 straight weeks, they are playing at home, and it’s the Cowboys defense.  This is like stealing money.

Jaguars under 14.5 points (-115)

The Jaguars score more than 10 points in this game… how?  I love that 0.5.

Blaine Gabbert UNDER 16.5 completions (-105)

He has never completed more than 16 passes in his career.  He’s doing it against the Steelers?

6 point teaser – Steelers -6.5 over Jags, Packers -8 over Rams

Jags and Rams are horrible teams going on the road against 2 of the best teams in the league.

6 point teaser – Bills +9 over Giants, Raiders -1 over Browns

No way the Raiders lose to the Browns.  That Bills-Giants game is going to be close.  The Giants’ defense is horrible.  At the very least a backdoor cover is coming.

49ers vs Lions - Will Either Team Score in the First 6 1/2 Minutes of the Game?  No (+110)

The Lions are slow starters, both defenses are solid, and the 49ers’ QB is Alex Smith.  I guess Alex Smith could throw a pick six on his first possession.  That’s my only worry.

Texans-Raiders Preview

Thank God the Texans beat the Steelers last week to get to 3-1.  We are incredibly vulnerable the next 3 weeks without Andre Johnson.  Raiders, @Ravens, @Titans.  We could legitimately go 0-3 without Andre, and I wouldn't even be that mad.  You can't salvage 2-5, but 3-4 is doable.  Still, we want to have a winning record going into the bye week, so winning our only home game would be huge.

I would argue Andre is the non-QB MVP basically every year.  I can't think of anyone else that means more to his offense.  Just look at that Dolphins game from week 2.  The Texans were in the middle of their typical collapse when Andre destroyed his DB for a wide open touchdown to give us a 10 point lead that we never relinquished.  We easily could have lost that game without him.  He does something like that in basically all of our wins.  It's going to be really hard to win without him.

Andre went down against the Steelers with 6:20 to go in the 2nd quarter, and our offense never recovered.  Schaub did not complete a single pass to another WR after Andre's departure, and we went 3-and-out on 4 of our final 5 possessions.  The only sustained drive was the amazing Foster-Daniels drive that resulted in the game-winning 42-yard touchdown run by Arian.  How sweet was that when Foster juked out Polamalu?  I know I went crazy.  Arian is the MVP of this team for the next 3 games, not even Matt Schaub.  We need outbursts like his run against the Steelers if we are going to have any chance.

Adrian Peterson is far and away the best RB in the game, but there's no clear number 2 if you ask me.  I would say the race for number 2 comes down to Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and LeSean McCoy.  There are arguments to be made for each one, but today we get a unique opportunity to get a read on where those first 2 guys stand.  The Texans and Raiders are pretty even, and they are the lone playmakers out there that can really make a difference in the game.  It's time for Arian to step up and show he belongs in that tier of RB.

The Texans are better than the Raiders with Andre Johnson, but without him I would argue we are a little worse.  The home field advantage brings us back to even.  Schaub is much better than Jason Campbell, but Campbell has better receivers to work with.  Not to mention the fact that the Raiders strategy is to run the ball and set up the deep pass.  Are you really looking forward to our secondary defending 4-5 deep bombs this game?  No, you're gonna hold your breath and pray.  The Texans do have Owen Daniels to work the middle of the field, and the Raiders have a bad secondary (22nd in the league) that was not helped by the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha.  Let's just hope Arian can outplay Darren, or else the Texans could be in for a long day.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Texans 24
Campbell throws 3 30+ yard passes

P.S. If anyone doubts Arian Foster's greatness just watch these Youtube videos:
Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z752oTJdwgQ
42-yard TD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3r-MpG_0JU&feature=related
Polamalu juke: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfm8dJF7CpY

Solving the NFL Kickoff Problem

I am tired of all this talk about the new NFL kickoff rule, and I have decided to solve all of the NFL's problems.  I agree that the old rule didn't work because players built up too much speed, and this resulted in too many injuries.  There are two ways to cut down on injuries.  The first is to decrease the number of hits by increasing the number of touchbacks.  That's boring, though.  I say you cut down on injuries by giving the players less distance to run and pick up speed.  Instead of letting players start running 5 or 10 yards before the ball is kicked, just make them stand at the 30 until the ball is kicked.  It's the only play in football where the offense is allowed to move forward before a play starts.  Why should one team's players get a running start at another team's players.  That seems destined to cause injuries.  So there you go NFL, keep the ball and the players at the 30 yard line.  Problem solved.

Texans Switching to 3-4 Defense

I am confused by what Wade Phillips is trying to do with the Texans' defense.  Clearly the defense needs a complete overhaul because of how bad it was last year.  I just don’t know if the change to the 3-4 is the answer.  The problem is that the successful teams actually have the personnel to run the 3-4 whereas the Texans do not.  It seems to me as though our defense has 4 starting defensive linemen and 3 starting linebackers, so why don’t we run the 4-3?  Maybe Wade Phillips sees things differently, but I think he has decided to fit his players to his scheme instead of his scheme fitting his players. 

I understand the basic principle behind the 3-4, which is that there is an ability for more complex pass rush schemes as a result of basically 2 outside linebackers that could rush at any given time as opposed to a 4th defensive lineman that will rush all the time.  However, this complex scheme is nullified by the fact that teams know Mario Williams is going to rush every single time.  If teams know that Mario is going to rush they will throw quick slants all day to the receiver on his side.  Phillips is trying to move Mario around so that the defense has to adjust to him on every play.  The last time we tried to use this same strategy was his rookie season, and it failed miserably.  It turned out that Mario could only handle rushing from the same side every time.  He got too confused by the multiple positions.  Now we are asking him to change positions entirely to OLB and then also move throughout the linebackers.  How could this possibly turn out well?  Here’s a good rule to live by.  Don’t mess with the best thing about your defense: Mario rushing from DE. 

Now for the second biggest problem with the Texans’ new defense: Nose Tackles.  I would argue that NT is the most important position in a 3-4 defense.  Great NTs like Kris Jenkins, Shaun Rogers, and BJ Raji, are massive human beings between 325 and 360 pounds.  They clog up the middle and stop the run by taking up multiple blockers.  The Texans’ Shaun Cody and Earl Mitchell weight 304 and 291 pounds, respectively.  They are much better suited to play DT in a 4-3 defense.  Not only are they underweight, but Cody and Mitchell have done nothing in their careers so far to show that they can be anything other than an average DTs.  I worry that teams will run up the middle on us all day.

The final problem is that the Texans have too many question marks in the front 7.  We are moving Mario Williams outside and pushing Brian Cushing inside even though Cushing was horrible last year on the inside.  It makes no sense why we would move our best DE and OLB to other positions where they may not be as good.  Demeco Ryans is coming off a bad Achilles’ heel injury, and it will be hard for him to immediately come back and be the Demeco of old.  Connor Barwin is also coming off injury and has never proven he can be a starter.  J.J. Watt is a rookie that we expect to immediately plug into the starting lineup and play all 16 games.  Outside of the front 7 we also have question marks with Kareem Jackson being horrible and Glover Quinn learning a new position in Strong Safety. 

I count 8 question marks (DE, NT, 2 OLB, 2 MLB, DB, SS) out of 11 positions on our defense.  If we stayed in the 4-3 we would be down to 4 question marks (OLB, MLB, DB, SS).  Doesn’t it seem like we should minimize our risk and stay with the 4-3?  Not to mention we could have drafted Nick Fairley over J.J. Watt to shore up our shaky DTs.

Quick Notes About The Draft

I don't think Cam Newton will be very good.  Same goes for Blaine Gabbert.  Newton never seemed to make any NFL plays in college, and I never thought his arm  looked too good.  He's going to get wrecked constantly on Carolina.  I see Carolina picking another QB in the first round in 4 years.  Do you know where Blaine Gabbert came from?  It seems like he would have been a 6th round pick last year, and after one mediocre season he is supposed to be the next Elway.  I don't think so.  He's David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Tim Couch reincarnate.

My favorite QB in this draft is Ryan Mallet.  He just looks like a QB, and he reminds me of Sam Bradford.  I know this sounds like I'm Mel Kiper, but he's big, tall, accurate, played in a pro-style offense, and had success in college.  What's not to like?  His attitude, apparently.  Whatever, Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler have bad attitudes, and they appear to be doing alright.  It's better to have a bad attitude than no attitude like Matt Schaub.

I don't really know what Jake Locker is going to be like in the pros, but I will say that he never did anything that impressed me in college.  I wouldn't pick him.  Andy Dalton did well in college, but I'm not sure he's built for the pros.  He reminds me of Colt McCoy.  If McCoy makes it big, then so will Dalton.

Why is Nick Fairley not a top 3 pick?  He was the most dominant defensive player I saw in college football last year.  I have never seen anyone make so many clutch plays in big games.  He basically won that Alabama game single-handedly.  When the first mock drafts were coming out he was a top 3 pick, so what changed?  I'm terrified the Titans are gonna pick him, and we're going to have to deal with him for the next 10 years.

It's okay, though, because we'll have Aldon Smith, or whatever other crappy transitional 3-4 DE/OLB the Texans pick.  Here is what the Texans should do with no exceptions:  Trade their 2nd and 4th round picks (or whatever it takes) to move up and take Patrick Peterson.  Just once I'd like to have a dominant secondary player on the Texans.  By all accounts, Peterson is a virtual lock to be a shutdown corner.  However, there's no way we'll do that.  We'll probably pick Aldon Smith or even move down in the draft to get some extra draft picks.  That would be a big move for us because you can never have enough 4th round tight ends...

One more thing.  If the Texans draft Aldon Smith over Da'Quan Bowers, I'm gonna kill myself.  Oh, but Aldon Smith has upside and could be the next DeMarcus Ware you say.  Bullshit.  He's going to be the next Aaron Maybin, and you know it.  Da'Quan Bowers was the best DE in college football last year.  If you get him at 11, you should count your blessings.

Players I like or at least think they should go higher than they are currently going in mock drafts:
Julio Jones
Robert Quinn
Prince Amukamara
Da'Quan Bowers
Mark Ingram
Nick Fairley
Patrick Peterson
Ryan Mallet
Ryan Kerrigan

Players I don't like or think are overrated:
Cam Newton
Blaine Gabbert
Marcell Dareus
Cameron Jordan
Corey Liuget

All that being said, I have no clue who is going to be good in the NFL, and neither do you.  It's all one big crapshoot.

MLB Playoff Thread

The Yankees looked good, and the Twins had their typical collapse.  I don't know why the Yankees dominate the Twins so much.

As for the most clutch pitcher in baseball argument:
CC Sabathia: 4 Runs, lucky win
Cliff Lee: 1 ER, solid win
Roy Halladay:  No Hitter.

Enough said.

Also, looks like the Rangers might be just a bit frisky, Ben.  Of course, we'll see what happens when they don't have Cliff Lee pitching.

Week 1: Texans 34, Colts 24

The Houston Texans are 1-0 for what seems like the first time since their franchise opener against Dallas back in 2002.  Before the game I sent a text to Trenton that said “In 5 years we are still going to be talking about how awesome it was that one time we beat the Colts on opening day.”  After watching that game I’m pretty sure I’ll be talking about that game for 10 years.  I’ve never cheered so loudly for the Texans.  My roommate’s girlfriend, whom I met for the first time on that Sunday, asked if I was on drugs because I was acting so irrationally each time the Texans did anything good. 

Unfortunately, now my expectations have been raised.  A lot of teams that were supposed to be contenders sure looked like pretenders on Sunday.  The Colts performed exactly like a team with a Super Bowl hangover.  Dropped passes, miscommunications, injuries, Peyton yelling at other people.  This bodes well for the Texans.  I see the playoffs coming down to 8 teams: Texans, Titans, Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Patriots, and Jets.  2 of those teams won’t make it.  Who’s to say it won’t be the Colts and Jets?  That would be my prediction.

Clearly the most important thing to take away from week 1 is that it looks  like we have a run game this year.  Let’s just hope for both the Texans and my fantasy team that Arian Foster doesn’t go the way of Domanick Davis and Steve Slaton.  The second most important thing is that Mario Williams played like the best Defensive End in the league on Sunday.  That was definitely his best game as a pro besides his 3 sack game against Denver 2  years ago.  He was everywhere.  Our new offensive coordinator, Rick Dennison, impressed me.  I know it sounds easy, but he actually changed the game plan once he saw that we were running all over the Colts.  I guarantee you Kyle Shanahan would have been forcing play action rollouts that were completely unnecessary.  Oh by the way, Shanahan is now the offensive coordinator of a team that was able to produce 6 points offensively.  If we can’t beat the Redskins, we have no business making the playoffs, and it will prove that we have learned nothing over the past 3 seasons.  We are a better team than the Redskins.  This is 100% on the coaching staff if they can’t motivate the players for this game.  We’ve seen it 100 times for the Texans.  Letdown after letdown.  It’s about time we do something right and show some consistency.

I’m now going to update my prediction for the Texans after each week.  For now, I’m keeping it the same as I predicted in the preseason.  Also, we are going to start out 4-0.  There is no way we lose to the Redskins, Cowboys, or Raiders… unless our coaching staff fucks it up.

Adjusted Texans Prediction: 11-5 

AFC 2010 Predictions

AFC South

Houston Texans: 11-5

GO BIG OR GO HOME!  All right, this is a huge homer pick, but I really think we should be this good.  We looked like an 11-5 team against the Cowboys.  However, we looked like a 6-10 teram against the Saints.  This inconsistency has killed us for the past 2 years and is probably why we’ll go 8-8 or 9-7.  That’s why this season comes down to one huge X factor: Gary Kubiak.  He needs to convey to the team that each game is incredibly important.  No more of this losing twice to Jacksonville.  I have almost no faith in him to prepare the players for the game or to close out the game.  He messed up one of those things every game last year.  Not only was he incredibly wrong for putting 4 games in the hands of K(Ch)ris Brown, but those games shouldn’t have even been close.  We should have put those teams away early.  His biggest flaw is that he has no killer instinct, and until he learns how to put teams away by scoring touchdowns instead of field goals, we will become an elite team. 

Draft Picks: Kareem Jackson, Ben Tate.  I wish we had gone RB then DB, but I guess this way is okay.  I’m not a huge fan of either player, but early indications are that Kareem Jackson looks good.  Chances are high that  Ben Tate never does anything substantial for the Texans because he is starting his career with a torn ACL.  The guy I really wanted the Texans to pick was Ryan Matthews.  We should have been the team trading a 4^th round pick to jump up and take him.  Matthews is going to be a beast, and I think he will easily win ROY.  I also liked Jahvid Best more than Kareem Jackson and Ben Tate.  The good thing about Jackson is that I have been complaining about our DB’s for so long that it is nice to finally have a good one.

Indianapolis Colts: 10-6

The Colts usually win 12 games every year, so I started there.  Then, I took away one win for the Super Bowl loss hangover.  I don’t know why, but it always seems to happen.  Teams that lose in the Super Bowl never seem to do as well the next season.  I see this beeing a problem for them, especially because Peyton likes to play the blame game.  The 2^nd extra loss is because the Colts are finally going to lose to the Texans.  I don’t care if the Texans go 14-2.  If they lose to the Colts twice, Gary Kubiak needs to be fired.

Draft Picks: Jerry Hughes, TCU.  Steal of the 1^st round on defense.  He’s just like Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney.  Speed off the edge is key for DE’s.  Look for him to be better than Derrick Morgan, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Brandon Graham.  All three were taken at least 15 picks before him.

Tennessee Titans: 8-8

Ahhhh I’m in crisis mode about the Titans.  I think I have serious psychological problems.  I cannot let the 2006 draft go.  I know that I hate Vince Young because he played at Texas yet I still find myself wanting him to do well in the pro’s just because I thought he would be better than Mario Williams.  Oh well.  This team will be okay because of Chris Johnson.  I also like their receiving corps.  Their downfall is going to be their defense.  They have lost so much over the past few years: Keith Bullock, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Albert Haynesworth.  I think this is the year it catches up to them.  This is going to be the opposite of Vince’s rookie year.  He’s going to have to win games instead of riding the defense to a win.

Draft Picks: Derrick Morgan.  Nothing special.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11

This is a team on  the decline.  I don’t think they have much left.  I’m worried the Texans will turn into the Jaguars in a few years if they don’t get some bigger playmakers on their team.

Draft Picks: Tyson Alualu, DT California.  Awful pick.  I tend to hate the Jaguars’ picks.

AFC East

New England Patriots: 12-4

I have no real basis for this pick besides the fact that I think the entire NFL will be down this year, and I think the Patriots will take advantage of it much like the Steelers did in ’07.  I think Brady and Belichick have one more year in them.  That loss to the Ravens last year was troubling though.  I’m probably giving them too much credit, but hey, what are preseason picks for?

Draft Picks: Devin McCourty, DB Rutgers.  Don’t know much about him, but they do need secondary help.  I thought the Texans might pick him.

New York Jets: 10-6

I really like their offseason additions of Jason Taylor and Santonio Holmes, but the LaDainian Tomlinson signing could come back to hurt them.  I think they’ll try to get him the ball too much, and it will screw them over just like he screwed over the Chargers for the past few years in the playoffs.  They should have kept Leon Washington.  He’s a perfect fit for that backfield alongside the bruiser Shonn Greene.  Also, they need to pay Darrelle Revis.  He is a huge part of their team.  I would say he’s much more important to them than Mark Sanchez.  With Revis, they can probably win 12 games.  Without him, they’re a 1^st round playoff loss waiting to happen.

Draft Picks: Kyle Wilson, DB Boise St.  Good pick.  I wanted us to pick him over Jackson, but who knows who’ll be better.  I believe in the Texans picking the best DB available.  He’ll help out the Jets but will be nothing  compared to Revis.

Miami Dolphins: 9-7

I love their coach, Tony Sparano.  He just seems like a winner.  If the Texans had him, we easily would have made the playoffs last year and would be a Super Bowl contender this year.  The Dolphins are definitely on the right track, but they may be screwing themselves over if Chad Henne falls into that mediocre QB range.

Draft Picks: Jared Odrick, DT Penn State; Koa Misi, DE Utah.  Both will be busts.

Buffalo Bills: 3-13

They will be battling Tampa Bay and St. Louis for the worst record in the league.

Draft Picks: C.J. Spiller, RB Clemson.  I know that I should like Spiller, but I just don’t see it from him.  Maybe he’ll be great, but I’m guessing he won’t.  At least he won’t be a head case like Marshawn Lynch.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5

This year reminds me of both of the other years the Steelers won the Super Bowl this decade.  There is no dominant team, and they’ll be able to take advantage.  I believe a good barometer of the league is how well the Steelers do at the end of the year.  They are always a really solid team.  They don’t really fluctuate either way, so if they do really well, it was a down year for the league.  Their kryptonite could be the Ben Roethlisberger situation.  I think they’ll be fine for their first 4 games without him now that Byron Leftwich is injured.  I really like Juan Dixon.  He’ll do a good job.  There is just no telling how big of a distraction Big Ben’s off the field issues were over the offseason for both him and the team.

Draft Picks: Maurkice Pouncey, C Florida.  The first Center taken in the draft always seems to be good, so I have no reason to believe otherwise with Pouncey.

Baltimore Ravens: 11-5

This team is going to be good.  Serious Super Bowl contenders.  Their running game is going to be off the charts, and Joe Flacco should really improve in his 3^rd year.  Their defense should be as good as ever. 

Draft Picks: Sergio Kindle, DE Texas; Terrence Cody, DT Alabama.  Steals in the 2^nd round.  Kindle is a serious athlete, and Cody could be for them what Ted Washington was for the Patriots.

Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10

I’m down on the Bengals this year.  Maybe it’s because the Texans pounded them last year, but I just think they got really lucky.  They won a lot of games on the last possession.  In this way, they were the complete opposite of the Texans.  Also, I have seen them try to appease Terrell Owens way too much in the preseason.

Draft Picks: Jermaine Gresham, TE Oklahoma.  Of course I love this pick.  He’s a beast.

Cleveland Browns: 4-12

LOL

Draft Picks: Joe Haden, DB Florida; Colt McCoy, QB Texas.  Too high.  Haden will be no better than the DBs that went later in the 1^st round.  McCoy isn’t going to make it in the NFL.  I just get the feeling he’s too small. 

AFC West

San Diego Chargers:  12-4

This team could win the Super Bowl if they get all their holdouts in place.  They don’t really need Vincent Jackson, but they desperately need Marcus McNeill.  That guy’s a beast.  They will wrap up this division very easily.  They finally have LaDainian Tomlinson off their backs, so they may even be able to win in the postseason as long as Norv Turner and Nate Kaeding don’t screw them over.  It would be so cool to see a Drew Brees-Phillip Rivers Super Bowl.  That’s what I’ll be rooting for this season. 

Draft Picks: Ryan Matthews, RB Fresno State.  Holy crap this guy is going to be so freaking good.  His highlight tape is amazing.  The guy is strong and still has breakaway speed.  He’s going to be the X-factor for the Chargers this year.  Okay, yeah so I don’t really know anything about the guy.  I just know he’s in a great situation, and I would have easily given up a 4^th round pick for him if I were the Texans.  The Texans didn’t really need a 7^th tight end in the 4^th round.

Denver Broncos: 8-8

I like Josh McDaniels, but he sure knows how to kill a team in the offseason. 

Draft Picks: Demaryius Thomas, WR Georgia Tech; Tim Tebow, QB Florida.  I like the Thomas pick.  Big, strong, athletic guy, but he had very little experience playing in the Georgia Tech run-based offense.  Tim Tebow will suck, but I have to admit I’ve been glued to the TV for every one of his starts.  I hope he takes over the starting job at some point this season, but then I hope he really sucks.  I’m still not over that BCS championship win over Oklahoma.

Oakland Raiders: 6-10

They try hard for Tom Cable.  I hope McFadden turns his career around.

Draft Picks: Rolando McClain, LB Alabama.  Finally, a good pick from Oakland.  DeMeco Ryans reincarnate, only this time teams have learned, and he went at the top of the draft.

Kansas City Chiefs: 6-10

I like the Chiefs and Matt Cassel.  Maybe he and Jamaal Charles will prove me wrong this year.

Draft Picks: Eric Berry, S Tennessee; Dexter  McCluster, RB/WR Ole Miss.  Both solid picks.  If the Chiefs had just kept Bernard Pollard, they wouldn’t have had to pick Berry.  I love Bernard Pollard.

NFC 2010 Predictions

NFC East:

Welcome to the most overrated division in football for the 8^th straight year.

New York Giants: 10-6

I like them to have a bounce back year with Osi Umenyiora back for a 2^nd straight year, better receivers, and Kenny Phillips coming back. 

Draft Picks: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE USF.  I hate this pick.  He’s the prototypical workout warrior, and they already have enough DE’s.

Dallas Cowboys: 9-7

I gave up on the Cowboys at halftime of the Texans preseason game.  They have a ridiculous amount of talent on this team, so I’m giving them 9 wins.  I cannot figure out what their problem is.  Well, maybe I can, and I just have trouble admitting it.  Initially I didn’t like Tony Romo, but then I grew into him and have been backing him ever since.  It’s time to jump off the bandwaggon.  He just isn’t a leader.  It’s that plain and simple.  He’s got the arm, the legs, and the talent.  He’s missing everything else.  Also, Wade Phillips is a miserable coach, and it showed in year 3.  Things have gotten worse in year 4.

Draft Picks: Dez Bryant.  The receiver thing is going to be an issue between Dez Bryant and Roy Williams.  Dez Bryant has already shown he’s an egomaniac.  How can you make national headlines twice before preseason games even start and then not call yourself a headcase?  Still, though, I like the pick.  I wanted the Texans to pick him when I saw him sliding.

Washington Redskins: 8-8

I love McNabb, but there just isn’t enough on this team to put them over the top.  I like Santana Moss as a fantasy sleeper because he’ll serve the same role as DeSean Jackson from last year.

Draft Picks: Trent Williams.  I love it when 3 Oklahoma players go in the top 4.  Good pick.

Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9

Kevin Kolb sucks.  They look awesome everywhere else.  I always used to love the Eagles because of Donovan McNabb, and I hated their fans because they never appreciated what McNabb gave them.  Sure, he was inconsistent and didn’t play his best games ever in NFC championship games, but he got you there!  I still do not understand how someone can complain about making 5 NFC championship games.  It’s like when the Detroit Pistons fans complained they did not make it to the NBA Finals after their 6^th straight trip to the Conference Finals and demanded a team shakeup.  Well Eagles and Pistons, welcome to mediocrity.

Draft Picks: Brandon Graham.  Meh, but I do think he will be better than Derrick Morgan, the 16^th pick.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: 12-4

I’m all aboard the Packers bandwaggon.  Aaron Rodgers is going to be awesome.  He could win the  MVP.  I like Ryan Grant and all of their receivers.  Their defense was okay last year, but they could have Houston Texans syndrome: not able to make the key stop.  That’ll keep them from going to the Super Bowl.

Draft Picks: Bryan Bulaga.  Great pick.  They need line help.

Minnesota Vikings: 10-6

Too many questions going into this season.  Favre’s ankle, Harvin’s migraines, no Sidney Rice (still shocks me that he’s good now), Peterson’s fumbles, rookie backup RB, and most importantly Favre is one year older.  I do love Peterson and think he’ll have a bounceback year, so maybe I’ll change their win total from 9 to 10…

Draft Picks: Chris Cook (don’t know him), Toby Gerhart.  Both  2^nd round picks.  I like Gerhart, but they are going to seriously regret trading Jahvid Best to the Lions.

Chicago Bears: 7-9

Decent team.  Nothing to put them over the top.  Julius Peppers is a good player, but players switching teams never seems to work.  I don’t give the Bears much of a chance.

Draft Picks: No pick until the 3^rd round.  Awful.

Detroit Lions: 6-10

THE TEAM OF THE FUTURE.  All right, that’s a little ballsy, but I do think the Lions are finally on the right track.  I love their core of young players: Jahvid Best, Matt Stafford, Ndamukong Suh, Calvin Johnson, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Brandon Pettigrew.  Fun fact: CC Brown is their starting Safety.  Maybe I should drop them down 2 or 3 wins…

Draft Picks: Ndamukong Suh, Jahvid Best.  A+++++.  That is a draft championships are made of.  Suh is going to be a freaking beast, and Jahvid Best is LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Darren Sproles, and Chris Johnson reincarnate.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 12-4

Dominance.  My NFC Super Bowl representative.  I backed them all last year, and I have no reason to change now.  The most telling thing about the Saints’ season last year is that they   They have a ridiculous number of weapons around Drew Brees.  I can’t see anyone nocking them off.  Also, my big pick for the Saints: THE YEAR OF REGGIE BUSH.  Huge playmaker, and it’s finally going to show.

Draft Picks: Charles Brown.  Don’t know him.

Atlanta Falcons: 10-6

I like Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White.  That is pretty much my only reasoning.

Draft Picks: Sean Weatherspoon.  Meh, fast linebacker I guess.  I don’t see him doing anything special.

Carolina Panthers: 7-9

Good running game.  Bad quarterback (I think).  Don’t know much about their defense.  I guess this is pretty much a shot in  the dark.

Draft Picks: I HATE JIMMY CLAUSEN.  I hope he sucks and ruins this franchise. 

The worst thing a team can do is draft a quarterback because they think he’s a “good value.”  Here’s the thing with quarterbacks: you only get 1, so you have to make it count.  When teams pick mediocre talent quarterbacks, they are stuck with them for years while the QBs show some good things, some bad things, but nothing special.  Next thing you know, you’re stuck with JP Lossman and Trent Edwards and haven’t had a winning season since 2004.

Other examples of mediocre QBs who have killed teams for years by showing just a glimmer of hope: Jason Campbell, Brodie Croyle, Kyle Boller, David Garrard, Alex Smith, David Carr, and Rex Grossman (though he did go to a SB).  This list will soon include Jimmy Clausen, Matt Leinart, Josh Freeman, and Chad Henne.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-13

My god this team is awful.  Do they have any redeeming qualities?  Maybe the fact that Josh Freeman is young, but  my theory above just proves that he’ll be bad for them in the long run.

Draft Picks: Gerald McCoy.  I love this pick.  Gotta represent my OU homeboy.

NFC West

This worst division in football

San Francisco 49ers: 8-8

That’s right.  I have the 49ers winning the division at 8-8.  The 49ers are the ultimate mediocre team with Alex Smith as their QB.  They also have the Texans syndrom of not being able to make the big play.  Expect them to lose a lot of close games.

Arizona: 6-10

The Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson experiment is going to fail miserably, and they are going to miss Anquan Boldin.  Back to the days of old for the Cardinals.

Draft Picks: Dan Williams.  Fat guy, not a big fan.

St. Louis Rams: 3-13

Draft Picks: I love Sam Bradford.  He looked like a beast in the 2^nd half of the preseason, and I think he’s going to be a star.  I’ve been thinking he would be an NFL star ever since I saw him play against Miami in his first big start my freshman year.  I can’t wait to watch him.

Seattle Seahawks: 3-13

Awful team.  Enough said.

Draft Picks: Russel Okung.  Good, solid pick.  I get the feeling he may be better than Trent Williams.