Week 6 Props

I have never looked at NFL props before, but here is the list of bets I would in theory make.  Let's see how it turns out.

NFL Prop Bets 10-16-11

Owen Daniels over 4.5 receptions

Doesn’t he get 5 receptions easily?  Who else is Matt Schaub going to throw to?

Texans Over Ravens (+300)

I feel like either the Texans are either going to get blown out or come out of Baltimore with a win.  I figure the +300 to win is a better bet than the +8 points at -110.  It’s nice having the better QB in a matchup.  Joe Flacco is going to be on his ass all day.  Crap, did I just bet on Gary Kubiak to pull an upset?

Texans/Ravens – Longest touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (-115)

Torrey Smith 50 yard TD.  Count it.  Also, Arian Foster could bust one.  Or Jacoby Jones lol.  Of course I’m just kidding about Jacoby.  Why is there no Torrey Smith over/under prop?  He’s going against Jason Allen all day!  I’ll just start him on my fantasy team to make up for it.

Packers/Rams – Longest play UNDER 47.5 yards (-115)

Isn’t that a really long play?  Also, I don’t know how longest touchdown of the game works, but why would the Steelers/Jags longest touchdown be 40.5 yards while the Packers/Rams is 47.5?  The Steelers are all about the big play receivers (Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders).  Maybe I should bet that 40.5 yard TD for the Steelers.  Also, MJD could bust one.

Patriots over 31 points (-115)

30+ points for 13 straight weeks, they are playing at home, and it’s the Cowboys defense.  This is like stealing money.

Jaguars under 14.5 points (-115)

The Jaguars score more than 10 points in this game… how?  I love that 0.5.

Blaine Gabbert UNDER 16.5 completions (-105)

He has never completed more than 16 passes in his career.  He’s doing it against the Steelers?

6 point teaser – Steelers -6.5 over Jags, Packers -8 over Rams

Jags and Rams are horrible teams going on the road against 2 of the best teams in the league.

6 point teaser – Bills +9 over Giants, Raiders -1 over Browns

No way the Raiders lose to the Browns.  That Bills-Giants game is going to be close.  The Giants’ defense is horrible.  At the very least a backdoor cover is coming.

49ers vs Lions - Will Either Team Score in the First 6 1/2 Minutes of the Game?  No (+110)

The Lions are slow starters, both defenses are solid, and the 49ers’ QB is Alex Smith.  I guess Alex Smith could throw a pick six on his first possession.  That’s my only worry.

Texans-Raiders Preview

Thank God the Texans beat the Steelers last week to get to 3-1.  We are incredibly vulnerable the next 3 weeks without Andre Johnson.  Raiders, @Ravens, @Titans.  We could legitimately go 0-3 without Andre, and I wouldn't even be that mad.  You can't salvage 2-5, but 3-4 is doable.  Still, we want to have a winning record going into the bye week, so winning our only home game would be huge.

I would argue Andre is the non-QB MVP basically every year.  I can't think of anyone else that means more to his offense.  Just look at that Dolphins game from week 2.  The Texans were in the middle of their typical collapse when Andre destroyed his DB for a wide open touchdown to give us a 10 point lead that we never relinquished.  We easily could have lost that game without him.  He does something like that in basically all of our wins.  It's going to be really hard to win without him.

Andre went down against the Steelers with 6:20 to go in the 2nd quarter, and our offense never recovered.  Schaub did not complete a single pass to another WR after Andre's departure, and we went 3-and-out on 4 of our final 5 possessions.  The only sustained drive was the amazing Foster-Daniels drive that resulted in the game-winning 42-yard touchdown run by Arian.  How sweet was that when Foster juked out Polamalu?  I know I went crazy.  Arian is the MVP of this team for the next 3 games, not even Matt Schaub.  We need outbursts like his run against the Steelers if we are going to have any chance.

Adrian Peterson is far and away the best RB in the game, but there's no clear number 2 if you ask me.  I would say the race for number 2 comes down to Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and LeSean McCoy.  There are arguments to be made for each one, but today we get a unique opportunity to get a read on where those first 2 guys stand.  The Texans and Raiders are pretty even, and they are the lone playmakers out there that can really make a difference in the game.  It's time for Arian to step up and show he belongs in that tier of RB.

The Texans are better than the Raiders with Andre Johnson, but without him I would argue we are a little worse.  The home field advantage brings us back to even.  Schaub is much better than Jason Campbell, but Campbell has better receivers to work with.  Not to mention the fact that the Raiders strategy is to run the ball and set up the deep pass.  Are you really looking forward to our secondary defending 4-5 deep bombs this game?  No, you're gonna hold your breath and pray.  The Texans do have Owen Daniels to work the middle of the field, and the Raiders have a bad secondary (22nd in the league) that was not helped by the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha.  Let's just hope Arian can outplay Darren, or else the Texans could be in for a long day.

Prediction: Raiders 28, Texans 24
Campbell throws 3 30+ yard passes

P.S. If anyone doubts Arian Foster's greatness just watch these Youtube videos:
Highlights: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z752oTJdwgQ
42-yard TD: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l3r-MpG_0JU&feature=related
Polamalu juke: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfm8dJF7CpY