Astros Starting Rotation-- Can They Lead A Playoff Run

Hey there everyone. Today's topic at the lunch table is the Houston Astros starting rotation. Ever since the Oswalt and Berkman trades, the Astros have seem to take on a new sense of life and excitement (sorry David, but you must admit things are looking up), with the improvement spearheaded by our starting rotation. The numbers have been incredible, and I have listed post All-Star ERA numbers in parentheses below. But let us ask this question-- do the Astros have a championship caliber rotation?

Let's take a look at who we've got for the foreseeable future (post AS break ERA in parentheses).

J.A Happ (3.55)
Wandy Rodriguez (1.82)
Brett Myers (2.12)
Bud Norris (4.25)
Nelson Figueroa (2.15)
(Jordan Lyles-- probably will get called up next season)

The salient feature of this rotation is its depth. I am pumped about what this rotation can do, as it has led the Astros to a winning record since the All-Star break, despite having dismal run support that could only be rivaled by the Astros during a Roger Clemens start. However, I think we can all agree that the majority of these numbers are unsustainable in the long run; on the flip side, I think we all should have reason for optimism moving forward.

But can this rotation lead us to a championship? It should be a nice rotation 1-5, but who is the ace? Myers has quite frankly pitched like an ace this season, but his career numbers suggest some regression. I see him as a No. 2/3 starter. Same with Wandy-- he can be brilliant, but is just a bit too inconsistent for me to believe he has ace potential. Happ as well slots to be a No. 3 kind of starter. And Norris and Figueroa figure to be solid performers moving forward, but do not have the combination of stuff and command that is necessary for a top of the rotation starter. Jordan Lyles could be an X-factor, but all reports that I have read indicate that he projects to be a pitcher of Myers' and Wandy's caliber.

We have seen time and time again that aces, not depth, win championships. The most clear example is the 2001 Diamondbacks who (sorry, Ben) singlehandedly dismantled a stronger Yankees team. It did not matter who starters 3, 4, and 5 were. Even last season, we saw the Yankees ride a trio of Sabathia, Pettitte, Burnett to a World Series title. 4th and 5th starters were not even used. So while I like our prospects for the regular season moving forward, I do not think this is a starting rotation that is built for playoff success. What we lost with the departure of Roy Oswalt was a guy who can consistently control a game and win a must win start. Roy did exactly this in 2005. After the most crushing defeat in Astros history (Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS), Roy took the mound in St. Louis for Game Six and flat out dominated the Cardinals. I think in a similar situation, the Astros might falter given their lack of an ace.

So do I like the Astros trade of Roy Oswalt? Yes. We are a younger, cheaper, and more exciting team. Even David can't argue with that. But do I like our chances of winning the franchise's first championship? Not really. Not until we grab an ace. Roger Clemens anyone? Haha, but seriously what does everyone think?

Houston Rockets

Daryl Morey is a god.  He can do no wrong.  I love trading Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee.  We shed roughly 20 million dollars and solidified a need position.  I never really accepted Ariza because he still had the Laker stench on him, so I’m fine letting him go.  Also, I’m a big percentages guy, and his 39% FG was not cutting it.  As for Courtney Lee, he adds improved defense and playoff experience for a team that desperately needs it.  Aaron Brooks, Kyle Lowry, and Kevin Martin are too small and weak to defend big, athletic guards.

Moving Ariza opens up a space for Chase Budinger, who showed some good potential last year.  Also, Shane Battier makes more sense in the starting lineup.  We don’t have a lot of shots to distribute after Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin, and Yao Ming.  Battier can sit back, play great defense, and make some clutch threes.  He is smart enough to know not to jack up 14 shots a game like Ariza did last year.  I really like our second string lineup now.  It is well defined whereas before there was going to be more jockeying for position, which could lead to some dissension. 

Kyle Lowry

Courtney Lee

Chase Budinger

Patrick Patterson

Brad Miller

That’s going to be a really fun unit to watch.  They’re going to be sick at running the fastbreak.  I didn’t think I could get any more excited about the upcoming Rockets season, but this Ariza trade raises my excitement to another level.

Email Addresses

Ben brought up a good point that more people would probably pay attention if they were getting emails every time someone made a new post/comment.  There is a way to do this, but I think I'm the only one that can make this decision.  Comment to this post if you want me to add you to the e-mail list.  Include your preferred email address as well.   I emailed most of you through your school accounts because it is the only one I could find on facebook.

Houston Astros Trades

This is my take on the recent deadline moves made by the Astros.  Ed Wade traded Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt for a 3 mediocre prospects (1B, SP, RP) and 2 below average prospects (2B, SS).  However, we really only added a 2B, SS, RP since we already had Berkman and Oswalt at 1B and SP. Wade then gave Brett Myers a 3-year 30 million dollar contract (44 million when you take into account the 14 million dollar payout for Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman).  This is where I got pissed off.

Let me give you a quick alternate scenario which I think sounds 100 times better than Ed Wade's plan (if you even think he has a plan).  Don't trade Roy Oswalt or Lance Berkman, and instead trade Brett Myers straight up for J.A. Happ, or at least someone like J.A. Happ on another team. I assume we could have done this because we got 3 players for Roy-O, so we should have been able to get 1 player for Myers.  This argument sort of hinges on the fact that I believe Berkman will be better than Brett Wallace and that Roy Oswalt will be better than Brett Myers for the next few years.  By trading Roy Oswalt for a 1st baseman we were forced to trade Berkman when his trade value was at the lowest in his career.  One could argue that Ed Wade had already done the smart thing and locked down the Berkman deal before the Oswalt trade went through.  However, we're talking about the guy that didn't tell every team in the league that the Astros were willing to pay 10 million dollars of Roy Oswalt's contract.  Do you understand how bad that was?  ESPN reported the next day that several teams would have offered a better package than the Phillies had they known the ridiculous amount of money the Astros were willing to cover.  

This alternate scenario also works out monetarily.  Roy Oswalt only has 1 remaining guaranteed year, so he is essentially no-risk whereas now we are shackled with inconsistent, injury-prone Brett Myers for the next 3 years.  Thus, instead of having a 1 year 17 million dollar contract, we have a 3 year 44 million dollar contract.  Which would you rather have?  Admittedly, with Berkman we are saving money this year because Brett Matthews makes nothing, so that trade makes sense monetarily for Ed Wade.  It's not a total loss though.  Lance Berkman is going to be a free agent after this year, and his stock is so down that we would be able to resign him at a discounted price.  Let's say we resign him for a modest 3-year 25 million dollar deal.  Adding this all up, we have 54 million dollars (25 from Berkman + 17 from Oswalt + 12 from remaining 2010 salary for Berkman and Oswalt) guaranteed from my scenario and 44 million dollars from Ed Wade's scenario.  That is only a 10 million dollar difference, which I say isn't too bad.  Maybe this way we wouldn't spend 10 million dollars on another Pedro Feliz/Brandon Lyon deal this offseason.  Also,  the Astros would earn extra money from the boost in attendance that comes with keeping two veteran, star players.

To recap:  Essentially, by trading Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman instead of Brett Myers, we downgraded at 1B, are locked into a deal with a worse, injury-prone pitcher for 3 years instead of 1 (2 years if we decide to take the team option on Oswalt), and have less fans in the seats. Now, in all fairness we would also have one less bullpen prospect from the Berkman trade, but who cares?  Prospects rarely work out, and who cares about relief pitching prospects?  You can always pick them up on the cheap during free agency.  The biggest problem with this trade is that Ed Wade ripped out the heart and soul of this team and left us with only 1 true veteran starter: Carlos Lee.  Just think about it. All these new guys are going to be learning from the a guy that lets his weight go, has no leadership abilities, and has no work ethic.  That sounds like a recipe for success.  On the flip side, here is a team that actually has potential to do something big:

Lineup (in order):

1 Michael Bourn

2 Jeff Keppinger

3 Lance Berkman

4 Carlos Lee

5 Hunter Pence

6 Chris Johnson (BEAST)

7 Angel Sanchez / Jiovanni Mier (SS prospect, #1 pick from 2008 draft)

8 Jason Castro

Starting Pitchers:

1 Roy Oswalt

2 Wandy Rodriguez

3 J.A. Happ

4 Bud Norris (just had 14 Ks!)

5 Jordan Lyles (top pitching prospect)

Relief Pitchers:

1 Brandon Lyon

2 Matt Lindstrom

That's a team that can compete for the playoffs!  In related news, wow Brad Mills is a bad manager because that team does NOT look like a team that should be 15 games below .500.  

I hope you have enjoyed my lengthy post. Let me know what you think.  Comment on  my baseball post, or start your own topic.  All the posts don't have to be long, but I was just pretty passionate about this one.  

Feel free to also post about how Kubiak failed yet again to win a game we dominated statistically and how Daryl Morey is a genius for trading Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee.

First Post

I don't know about you guys, but I miss all those sports arguments we used to have at lunch.  I don't have anything like that in college, so I'm hoping we can maybe start those kinds of detailed discussions about sports on this blog.  Think of this blog as the postings we had for our fantasy baseball season, only without the actual fantasy baseball.  I am going to get the ball rolling with a discussion about the recent Astros trades.  Let me know what you think about my argument and also what you think about the blog.  I realize this a huge long shot to actually work, but I think it could be really fun.