Hey there everyone. Today's topic at the lunch table is the Houston Astros starting rotation. Ever since the Oswalt and Berkman trades, the Astros have seem to take on a new sense of life and excitement (sorry David, but you must admit things are looking up), with the improvement spearheaded by our starting rotation. The numbers have been incredible, and I have listed post All-Star ERA numbers in parentheses below. But let us ask this question-- do the Astros have a championship caliber rotation?
Let's take a look at who we've got for the foreseeable future (post AS break ERA in parentheses).
J.A Happ (3.55)
Wandy Rodriguez (1.82)
Brett Myers (2.12)
Bud Norris (4.25)
Nelson Figueroa (2.15)
(Jordan Lyles-- probably will get called up next season)
The salient feature of this rotation is its depth. I am pumped about what this rotation can do, as it has led the Astros to a winning record since the All-Star break, despite having dismal run support that could only be rivaled by the Astros during a Roger Clemens start. However, I think we can all agree that the majority of these numbers are unsustainable in the long run; on the flip side, I think we all should have reason for optimism moving forward.
But can this rotation lead us to a championship? It should be a nice rotation 1-5, but who is the ace? Myers has quite frankly pitched like an ace this season, but his career numbers suggest some regression. I see him as a No. 2/3 starter. Same with Wandy-- he can be brilliant, but is just a bit too inconsistent for me to believe he has ace potential. Happ as well slots to be a No. 3 kind of starter. And Norris and Figueroa figure to be solid performers moving forward, but do not have the combination of stuff and command that is necessary for a top of the rotation starter. Jordan Lyles could be an X-factor, but all reports that I have read indicate that he projects to be a pitcher of Myers' and Wandy's caliber.
We have seen time and time again that aces, not depth, win championships. The most clear example is the 2001 Diamondbacks who (sorry, Ben) singlehandedly dismantled a stronger Yankees team. It did not matter who starters 3, 4, and 5 were. Even last season, we saw the Yankees ride a trio of Sabathia, Pettitte, Burnett to a World Series title. 4th and 5th starters were not even used. So while I like our prospects for the regular season moving forward, I do not think this is a starting rotation that is built for playoff success. What we lost with the departure of Roy Oswalt was a guy who can consistently control a game and win a must win start. Roy did exactly this in 2005. After the most crushing defeat in Astros history (Game 5 of the 2005 NLCS), Roy took the mound in St. Louis for Game Six and flat out dominated the Cardinals. I think in a similar situation, the Astros might falter given their lack of an ace.
So do I like the Astros trade of Roy Oswalt? Yes. We are a younger, cheaper, and more exciting team. Even David can't argue with that. But do I like our chances of winning the franchise's first championship? Not really. Not until we grab an ace. Roger Clemens anyone? Haha, but seriously what does everyone think?
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ReplyDeletehaha no worries Jeremy the 2001-2008 constant chokejobs were worth it to see the Yanks win last year... although to this day i hate RJ/Schill. I think we have a really good shot at it this year although just because of their remarkable consistency across the lineup/rotation/bullpen I still see the Rays as a slight favorite even with us 1.5 games up.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I DO agree "ace" level starting pitching, combined with a dominant bullpen I believe (aka the Padres or Mariano Rivera) are the two most important factors in post-season success, and CC has definitely proven the past two years that he is arguably the best pitcher in baseball in big game situations right now and his absolutely absurd 16-0 record @ home since the All-star break last year puts him in rarefied air.
I completely agree the Astros trade of Oswalt creates a void because you definitely need a championship-level starter and Brett Myers is a VERY GOOD pitcher, but does not belong in the conversation with CC/Roy/David Price/Wainright/Jimenez/Arroyo/Carpenter/Bucholz/etc. (if you notice a common theme between the teams these guys pitch for they're all in, or were in for a good part of the season, the playoff race)
I think it was a move you guys needed to make, but I definitely agree your off-season is in bad need of adding some heavy lumber and one major starting pitcher... you may have to give up some of your young/exciting players but y'all are in bad need of a young guy like bucholz/price who will be there to keep your team in playoff races for years to come (like Roy was 9 years ago)
either way the Stros aren't making the playoffs this year so you just have to hope the team starts to improve and makes the proper moves in the off-season
Whoa Ben that's a big statement about CC. I would say Cliff Lee is definitely the best big game pitcher in the game. He beat CC head to head in Game 1 of the world series and dominated every start he had in the playoffs. Also, I know it has been a few years, but I've always though Johan Santana is incredibly clutch.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your analysis of the Astros. We are stuck here in mediocre mode. We need some playmakers, be it a big bat or a big starting pitcher. Maybe we could make some sort of package out of our other young pitchers to get an ace.
This postseason is going to be really good. All of the NL teams are evenly matched, and the Texas Rangers have upset potential. Sorry Ben and Jeremy, but I'm going to be rooting for anyone but the Yankees and Braves. I hope the Phillies do well, so Roy can get some big starts and dominate them.
haha well Maher just to start since being traded to the Texas team that you're claiming is good enough to have upset potential Cliff Lee is 2-5 with a whoping 4.69 ERA, if his stats don't improve the rest of the year forget upset potential Texas probably won't win more than a game off the Rays/Yanks team they play in the wild card round.
ReplyDeleteThe NL has solid teams, but I disagree with your thought that the teams are evenly matched because I think the Reds/Braves/Phillies are significantly better teams than the Padres/Giants/Rockies (one or two of those teams look like they'll make it right now)
As I've said all year I think the Rays and Yanks are on a collision course for the ALCS. I think IF the Phillies can get into the playoffs they are the most dangerous NL team, but I still expect the Rays-Yanks winner to take the world series.
Yeah I saw those stats from Cliff Lee before I made that post. I would just need to see Lee have a bad outing in the postseason before I give CC the nod. I agree that the Rays and Yankees are probably destined for the ALCS, but I do think Texas still has some upset potential. They have great hitting and good enough pitching to back it up.
ReplyDeleteI honestly think the Phillies are going to win the World Series. A trio of Halladay (Yankee killer), Oswalt, and Hamels is going to be tough to beat. And Brad Lidge is back in dominant form-- if he can keep it up, I don't see how anyone will be able to take them down.
ReplyDeletejust wait til Cliff runs into the Rays/Yanks, then i doubt we'll need to continue this thread.
ReplyDeletei agree jeremy i see the phillies as the likely NL pennant winner, and I completely agree Halladay owns our nuts but I will say Hamels is a shadow of his former self and Lidge, albeit a great closer, isn't exactly the greatest closer in the history of playoff baseball.
ultimately i just think the Rays/Yanks hitting will be too tough for any NL team they play but I fully admit the Phillies would have the best shot against either.
that being said the Braves are 7-5 against the Phils thus far this year and with how Hudson has been pitching (I would argue even better than either Roy) you never know how that series could end up if they played each other.
just to close out the east coast bias point though, I think we can all agree it's fairly likely that 3 or even all four of the teams in the League Championship series will likely be from the east divisions. it's not necessarily bias those teams are just better
The Braves were my preseason championship pick, so I obviously think they will do well in the postseason. Yeah, Hudson is the man. Love that guy.
ReplyDeleteAnd sure the best teams play in the AL East and NL East. But we were not talking about team evaluations, we were discussing player evaluations for end of year awards. The best players in the league do not necessarily play for east coast teams. And while I think the media does a good job of identifying the best position players (Pujols, Votto, CarGo in the NL, Hamilton, Cabrera in the AL), they overvalue pitchers from the east coast teams and undervalue pitchers from less interesting squads. I think the current MVP races are valid, but other candidates need to be considered for the Cy Young awards.