This is my take on the recent deadline moves made by the Astros. Ed Wade traded Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt for a 3 mediocre prospects (1B, SP, RP) and 2 below average prospects (2B, SS). However, we really only added a 2B, SS, RP since we already had Berkman and Oswalt at 1B and SP. Wade then gave Brett Myers a 3-year 30 million dollar contract (44 million when you take into account the 14 million dollar payout for Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman). This is where I got pissed off.
Let me give you a quick alternate scenario which I think sounds 100 times better than Ed Wade's plan (if you even think he has a plan). Don't trade Roy Oswalt or Lance Berkman, and instead trade Brett Myers straight up for J.A. Happ, or at least someone like J.A. Happ on another team. I assume we could have done this because we got 3 players for Roy-O, so we should have been able to get 1 player for Myers. This argument sort of hinges on the fact that I believe Berkman will be better than Brett Wallace and that Roy Oswalt will be better than Brett Myers for the next few years. By trading Roy Oswalt for a 1st baseman we were forced to trade Berkman when his trade value was at the lowest in his career. One could argue that Ed Wade had already done the smart thing and locked down the Berkman deal before the Oswalt trade went through. However, we're talking about the guy that didn't tell every team in the league that the Astros were willing to pay 10 million dollars of Roy Oswalt's contract. Do you understand how bad that was? ESPN reported the next day that several teams would have offered a better package than the Phillies had they known the ridiculous amount of money the Astros were willing to cover.
This alternate scenario also works out monetarily. Roy Oswalt only has 1 remaining guaranteed year, so he is essentially no-risk whereas now we are shackled with inconsistent, injury-prone Brett Myers for the next 3 years. Thus, instead of having a 1 year 17 million dollar contract, we have a 3 year 44 million dollar contract. Which would you rather have? Admittedly, with Berkman we are saving money this year because Brett Matthews makes nothing, so that trade makes sense monetarily for Ed Wade. It's not a total loss though. Lance Berkman is going to be a free agent after this year, and his stock is so down that we would be able to resign him at a discounted price. Let's say we resign him for a modest 3-year 25 million dollar deal. Adding this all up, we have 54 million dollars (25 from Berkman + 17 from Oswalt + 12 from remaining 2010 salary for Berkman and Oswalt) guaranteed from my scenario and 44 million dollars from Ed Wade's scenario. That is only a 10 million dollar difference, which I say isn't too bad. Maybe this way we wouldn't spend 10 million dollars on another Pedro Feliz/Brandon Lyon deal this offseason. Also, the Astros would earn extra money from the boost in attendance that comes with keeping two veteran, star players.
To recap: Essentially, by trading Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman instead of Brett Myers, we downgraded at 1B, are locked into a deal with a worse, injury-prone pitcher for 3 years instead of 1 (2 years if we decide to take the team option on Oswalt), and have less fans in the seats. Now, in all fairness we would also have one less bullpen prospect from the Berkman trade, but who cares? Prospects rarely work out, and who cares about relief pitching prospects? You can always pick them up on the cheap during free agency. The biggest problem with this trade is that Ed Wade ripped out the heart and soul of this team and left us with only 1 true veteran starter: Carlos Lee. Just think about it. All these new guys are going to be learning from the a guy that lets his weight go, has no leadership abilities, and has no work ethic. That sounds like a recipe for success. On the flip side, here is a team that actually has potential to do something big:
Lineup (in order):
1 Michael Bourn
2 Jeff Keppinger
3 Lance Berkman
4 Carlos Lee
5 Hunter Pence
6 Chris Johnson (BEAST)
7 Angel Sanchez / Jiovanni Mier (SS prospect, #1 pick from 2008 draft)
8 Jason Castro
Starting Pitchers:
1 Roy Oswalt
2 Wandy Rodriguez
3 J.A. Happ
4 Bud Norris (just had 14 Ks!)
5 Jordan Lyles (top pitching prospect)
Relief Pitchers:
1 Brandon Lyon
2 Matt Lindstrom
That's a team that can compete for the playoffs! In related news, wow Brad Mills is a bad manager because that team does NOT look like a team that should be 15 games below .500.
I hope you have enjoyed my lengthy post. Let me know what you think. Comment on my baseball post, or start your own topic. All the posts don't have to be long, but I was just pretty passionate about this one.
Feel free to also post about how Kubiak failed yet again to win a game we dominated statistically and how Daryl Morey is a genius for trading Trevor Ariza for Courtney Lee.
Also, feel free to invite anyone else to the blog that I may have forgotten. It doesn't just have to be SJS people. I just figured we could start it out that way.
ReplyDeleteYou can invite people to the blog by going to the blogspot homepage -> Settings -> Permissions
1) Oswalt is getting old and won't be better than Brett Myers pretty soon (if he isn't there already)- the kid has a worse record AND worse ERA and he's acquired 2 of his precious 8 Ws with the Phillies which we definitely don't assume he would've gotten with the "we suck at everything" Astros)
ReplyDelete2) Berkman sucks- I love the guy and hope he picks it up and maybe gets one clutch hit for us in game 3 of the ALDS against the Twins or something, but I definitely won't be holding my breath. Girardi putting him in the two hole after the trade and moving the most under-rated player in the entire MLB this year (Nick Swisher) to sixth was an enormous mistake that I hope Joe won't make again if and when Berkman gets healthy and continues to hit .179 and strike out/ground into double plays with the bases loaded and one out.
In summary, yeah the trade is painful as a fan of your team cause it looks like you're giving up on the season (which you are) with the chance to open up some flexibility economically and get some new young blood infused into your system. I've been there, the Avs virtually dumped our entire team for all these young guys over the past 4 years who are now finally starting to give me hope we might be a good team in 3-4 years (like you can hope the Stros will be) but I wasn't under the delusion my Avs would take out the choke-artist Sharks in the first round just because quite frankly we aren't good enough yet, neither are the Stros to make a playoff run.
cool idea Maher, I'll definitely be down to check frequently (will it email update me when anybody posts new things?- if you can get it to do that i feel like it's much more likely everyone will participate besides Cullen "I deleted my Facebook" Avidan
I had a long response that this blog just deleted. Here's my take on the Oswalt deal.
ReplyDeleteHapp: a solid 3 starter based on his outstanding mound presence but so-so stuff. In the minors, he posted a 3.34 ERA and 1.27 WHIP across all levels. Plus, he's a lefty. There's no reason to think his rookie year numbers should hold, but his success in the minors suggest that he has many good years ahead of him in an Astros uniform.
Villar: a throw-in with a high upside. Villar has plus wheels and a good line-drive stroke. Unfortunately, he has a fringy glove and terrible plate discipline. He should stay as a middle infielder but may have to move from short to 2nd. Whatever, the case he should provide organizational depth and competition for Mier and DeShields, and if he figures his stuff out, he could be a good major leaguer.
Wallace: Berkman's replacement. It's hard to see Berkman go, but the organization is in better hands with Wallace. First off, he's younger and healthier. Second off, he wants to be in Houston. Third off, his projections are better than Berkman's actual output over the past two seasons. Wallace is expected to be a .300+ hitter with 20+ homer pop and gap power to all fields; Last year, Berkman hit .274 with 25 jacks and 31 doubles. It doesn't seem like he'll match that production again, and Wallace should hit at least that well for years to come. Wallace looks like a young James Loney-style hitter, and I'd take that over Berkman any day.
In short, for an unhappy ace on the decline, we shed salary, though not as much as we would have liked, and added a solid young starter and a good replacement for a franchise 1b. I'd say that's a pretty good deal. Perhaps more importantly, we shed the nucleus of an aging, declining team and replaced it with new blood.
As for the Berkman deal, we got screwed. Then again, his trade value was low and Wallace was ready to take over. His contract offered a club option with a $2m buyout. We were going to pay to get rid of him at some point, so we had to trade him to get at least something for him. Unfortunately, his no trade clause didn't help us on this one.