Week 1: Texans 34, Colts 24

The Houston Texans are 1-0 for what seems like the first time since their franchise opener against Dallas back in 2002.  Before the game I sent a text to Trenton that said “In 5 years we are still going to be talking about how awesome it was that one time we beat the Colts on opening day.”  After watching that game I’m pretty sure I’ll be talking about that game for 10 years.  I’ve never cheered so loudly for the Texans.  My roommate’s girlfriend, whom I met for the first time on that Sunday, asked if I was on drugs because I was acting so irrationally each time the Texans did anything good. 

Unfortunately, now my expectations have been raised.  A lot of teams that were supposed to be contenders sure looked like pretenders on Sunday.  The Colts performed exactly like a team with a Super Bowl hangover.  Dropped passes, miscommunications, injuries, Peyton yelling at other people.  This bodes well for the Texans.  I see the playoffs coming down to 8 teams: Texans, Titans, Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, Patriots, and Jets.  2 of those teams won’t make it.  Who’s to say it won’t be the Colts and Jets?  That would be my prediction.

Clearly the most important thing to take away from week 1 is that it looks  like we have a run game this year.  Let’s just hope for both the Texans and my fantasy team that Arian Foster doesn’t go the way of Domanick Davis and Steve Slaton.  The second most important thing is that Mario Williams played like the best Defensive End in the league on Sunday.  That was definitely his best game as a pro besides his 3 sack game against Denver 2  years ago.  He was everywhere.  Our new offensive coordinator, Rick Dennison, impressed me.  I know it sounds easy, but he actually changed the game plan once he saw that we were running all over the Colts.  I guarantee you Kyle Shanahan would have been forcing play action rollouts that were completely unnecessary.  Oh by the way, Shanahan is now the offensive coordinator of a team that was able to produce 6 points offensively.  If we can’t beat the Redskins, we have no business making the playoffs, and it will prove that we have learned nothing over the past 3 seasons.  We are a better team than the Redskins.  This is 100% on the coaching staff if they can’t motivate the players for this game.  We’ve seen it 100 times for the Texans.  Letdown after letdown.  It’s about time we do something right and show some consistency.

I’m now going to update my prediction for the Texans after each week.  For now, I’m keeping it the same as I predicted in the preseason.  Also, we are going to start out 4-0.  There is no way we lose to the Redskins, Cowboys, or Raiders… unless our coaching staff fucks it up.

Adjusted Texans Prediction: 11-5 

AFC 2010 Predictions

AFC South

Houston Texans: 11-5

GO BIG OR GO HOME!  All right, this is a huge homer pick, but I really think we should be this good.  We looked like an 11-5 team against the Cowboys.  However, we looked like a 6-10 teram against the Saints.  This inconsistency has killed us for the past 2 years and is probably why we’ll go 8-8 or 9-7.  That’s why this season comes down to one huge X factor: Gary Kubiak.  He needs to convey to the team that each game is incredibly important.  No more of this losing twice to Jacksonville.  I have almost no faith in him to prepare the players for the game or to close out the game.  He messed up one of those things every game last year.  Not only was he incredibly wrong for putting 4 games in the hands of K(Ch)ris Brown, but those games shouldn’t have even been close.  We should have put those teams away early.  His biggest flaw is that he has no killer instinct, and until he learns how to put teams away by scoring touchdowns instead of field goals, we will become an elite team. 

Draft Picks: Kareem Jackson, Ben Tate.  I wish we had gone RB then DB, but I guess this way is okay.  I’m not a huge fan of either player, but early indications are that Kareem Jackson looks good.  Chances are high that  Ben Tate never does anything substantial for the Texans because he is starting his career with a torn ACL.  The guy I really wanted the Texans to pick was Ryan Matthews.  We should have been the team trading a 4^th round pick to jump up and take him.  Matthews is going to be a beast, and I think he will easily win ROY.  I also liked Jahvid Best more than Kareem Jackson and Ben Tate.  The good thing about Jackson is that I have been complaining about our DB’s for so long that it is nice to finally have a good one.

Indianapolis Colts: 10-6

The Colts usually win 12 games every year, so I started there.  Then, I took away one win for the Super Bowl loss hangover.  I don’t know why, but it always seems to happen.  Teams that lose in the Super Bowl never seem to do as well the next season.  I see this beeing a problem for them, especially because Peyton likes to play the blame game.  The 2^nd extra loss is because the Colts are finally going to lose to the Texans.  I don’t care if the Texans go 14-2.  If they lose to the Colts twice, Gary Kubiak needs to be fired.

Draft Picks: Jerry Hughes, TCU.  Steal of the 1^st round on defense.  He’s just like Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney.  Speed off the edge is key for DE’s.  Look for him to be better than Derrick Morgan, Jason Pierre-Paul, and Brandon Graham.  All three were taken at least 15 picks before him.

Tennessee Titans: 8-8

Ahhhh I’m in crisis mode about the Titans.  I think I have serious psychological problems.  I cannot let the 2006 draft go.  I know that I hate Vince Young because he played at Texas yet I still find myself wanting him to do well in the pro’s just because I thought he would be better than Mario Williams.  Oh well.  This team will be okay because of Chris Johnson.  I also like their receiving corps.  Their downfall is going to be their defense.  They have lost so much over the past few years: Keith Bullock, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Albert Haynesworth.  I think this is the year it catches up to them.  This is going to be the opposite of Vince’s rookie year.  He’s going to have to win games instead of riding the defense to a win.

Draft Picks: Derrick Morgan.  Nothing special.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11

This is a team on  the decline.  I don’t think they have much left.  I’m worried the Texans will turn into the Jaguars in a few years if they don’t get some bigger playmakers on their team.

Draft Picks: Tyson Alualu, DT California.  Awful pick.  I tend to hate the Jaguars’ picks.

AFC East

New England Patriots: 12-4

I have no real basis for this pick besides the fact that I think the entire NFL will be down this year, and I think the Patriots will take advantage of it much like the Steelers did in ’07.  I think Brady and Belichick have one more year in them.  That loss to the Ravens last year was troubling though.  I’m probably giving them too much credit, but hey, what are preseason picks for?

Draft Picks: Devin McCourty, DB Rutgers.  Don’t know much about him, but they do need secondary help.  I thought the Texans might pick him.

New York Jets: 10-6

I really like their offseason additions of Jason Taylor and Santonio Holmes, but the LaDainian Tomlinson signing could come back to hurt them.  I think they’ll try to get him the ball too much, and it will screw them over just like he screwed over the Chargers for the past few years in the playoffs.  They should have kept Leon Washington.  He’s a perfect fit for that backfield alongside the bruiser Shonn Greene.  Also, they need to pay Darrelle Revis.  He is a huge part of their team.  I would say he’s much more important to them than Mark Sanchez.  With Revis, they can probably win 12 games.  Without him, they’re a 1^st round playoff loss waiting to happen.

Draft Picks: Kyle Wilson, DB Boise St.  Good pick.  I wanted us to pick him over Jackson, but who knows who’ll be better.  I believe in the Texans picking the best DB available.  He’ll help out the Jets but will be nothing  compared to Revis.

Miami Dolphins: 9-7

I love their coach, Tony Sparano.  He just seems like a winner.  If the Texans had him, we easily would have made the playoffs last year and would be a Super Bowl contender this year.  The Dolphins are definitely on the right track, but they may be screwing themselves over if Chad Henne falls into that mediocre QB range.

Draft Picks: Jared Odrick, DT Penn State; Koa Misi, DE Utah.  Both will be busts.

Buffalo Bills: 3-13

They will be battling Tampa Bay and St. Louis for the worst record in the league.

Draft Picks: C.J. Spiller, RB Clemson.  I know that I should like Spiller, but I just don’t see it from him.  Maybe he’ll be great, but I’m guessing he won’t.  At least he won’t be a head case like Marshawn Lynch.

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5

This year reminds me of both of the other years the Steelers won the Super Bowl this decade.  There is no dominant team, and they’ll be able to take advantage.  I believe a good barometer of the league is how well the Steelers do at the end of the year.  They are always a really solid team.  They don’t really fluctuate either way, so if they do really well, it was a down year for the league.  Their kryptonite could be the Ben Roethlisberger situation.  I think they’ll be fine for their first 4 games without him now that Byron Leftwich is injured.  I really like Juan Dixon.  He’ll do a good job.  There is just no telling how big of a distraction Big Ben’s off the field issues were over the offseason for both him and the team.

Draft Picks: Maurkice Pouncey, C Florida.  The first Center taken in the draft always seems to be good, so I have no reason to believe otherwise with Pouncey.

Baltimore Ravens: 11-5

This team is going to be good.  Serious Super Bowl contenders.  Their running game is going to be off the charts, and Joe Flacco should really improve in his 3^rd year.  Their defense should be as good as ever. 

Draft Picks: Sergio Kindle, DE Texas; Terrence Cody, DT Alabama.  Steals in the 2^nd round.  Kindle is a serious athlete, and Cody could be for them what Ted Washington was for the Patriots.

Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10

I’m down on the Bengals this year.  Maybe it’s because the Texans pounded them last year, but I just think they got really lucky.  They won a lot of games on the last possession.  In this way, they were the complete opposite of the Texans.  Also, I have seen them try to appease Terrell Owens way too much in the preseason.

Draft Picks: Jermaine Gresham, TE Oklahoma.  Of course I love this pick.  He’s a beast.

Cleveland Browns: 4-12

LOL

Draft Picks: Joe Haden, DB Florida; Colt McCoy, QB Texas.  Too high.  Haden will be no better than the DBs that went later in the 1^st round.  McCoy isn’t going to make it in the NFL.  I just get the feeling he’s too small. 

AFC West

San Diego Chargers:  12-4

This team could win the Super Bowl if they get all their holdouts in place.  They don’t really need Vincent Jackson, but they desperately need Marcus McNeill.  That guy’s a beast.  They will wrap up this division very easily.  They finally have LaDainian Tomlinson off their backs, so they may even be able to win in the postseason as long as Norv Turner and Nate Kaeding don’t screw them over.  It would be so cool to see a Drew Brees-Phillip Rivers Super Bowl.  That’s what I’ll be rooting for this season. 

Draft Picks: Ryan Matthews, RB Fresno State.  Holy crap this guy is going to be so freaking good.  His highlight tape is amazing.  The guy is strong and still has breakaway speed.  He’s going to be the X-factor for the Chargers this year.  Okay, yeah so I don’t really know anything about the guy.  I just know he’s in a great situation, and I would have easily given up a 4^th round pick for him if I were the Texans.  The Texans didn’t really need a 7^th tight end in the 4^th round.

Denver Broncos: 8-8

I like Josh McDaniels, but he sure knows how to kill a team in the offseason. 

Draft Picks: Demaryius Thomas, WR Georgia Tech; Tim Tebow, QB Florida.  I like the Thomas pick.  Big, strong, athletic guy, but he had very little experience playing in the Georgia Tech run-based offense.  Tim Tebow will suck, but I have to admit I’ve been glued to the TV for every one of his starts.  I hope he takes over the starting job at some point this season, but then I hope he really sucks.  I’m still not over that BCS championship win over Oklahoma.

Oakland Raiders: 6-10

They try hard for Tom Cable.  I hope McFadden turns his career around.

Draft Picks: Rolando McClain, LB Alabama.  Finally, a good pick from Oakland.  DeMeco Ryans reincarnate, only this time teams have learned, and he went at the top of the draft.

Kansas City Chiefs: 6-10

I like the Chiefs and Matt Cassel.  Maybe he and Jamaal Charles will prove me wrong this year.

Draft Picks: Eric Berry, S Tennessee; Dexter  McCluster, RB/WR Ole Miss.  Both solid picks.  If the Chiefs had just kept Bernard Pollard, they wouldn’t have had to pick Berry.  I love Bernard Pollard.

NFC 2010 Predictions

NFC East:

Welcome to the most overrated division in football for the 8^th straight year.

New York Giants: 10-6

I like them to have a bounce back year with Osi Umenyiora back for a 2^nd straight year, better receivers, and Kenny Phillips coming back. 

Draft Picks: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE USF.  I hate this pick.  He’s the prototypical workout warrior, and they already have enough DE’s.

Dallas Cowboys: 9-7

I gave up on the Cowboys at halftime of the Texans preseason game.  They have a ridiculous amount of talent on this team, so I’m giving them 9 wins.  I cannot figure out what their problem is.  Well, maybe I can, and I just have trouble admitting it.  Initially I didn’t like Tony Romo, but then I grew into him and have been backing him ever since.  It’s time to jump off the bandwaggon.  He just isn’t a leader.  It’s that plain and simple.  He’s got the arm, the legs, and the talent.  He’s missing everything else.  Also, Wade Phillips is a miserable coach, and it showed in year 3.  Things have gotten worse in year 4.

Draft Picks: Dez Bryant.  The receiver thing is going to be an issue between Dez Bryant and Roy Williams.  Dez Bryant has already shown he’s an egomaniac.  How can you make national headlines twice before preseason games even start and then not call yourself a headcase?  Still, though, I like the pick.  I wanted the Texans to pick him when I saw him sliding.

Washington Redskins: 8-8

I love McNabb, but there just isn’t enough on this team to put them over the top.  I like Santana Moss as a fantasy sleeper because he’ll serve the same role as DeSean Jackson from last year.

Draft Picks: Trent Williams.  I love it when 3 Oklahoma players go in the top 4.  Good pick.

Philadelphia Eagles: 7-9

Kevin Kolb sucks.  They look awesome everywhere else.  I always used to love the Eagles because of Donovan McNabb, and I hated their fans because they never appreciated what McNabb gave them.  Sure, he was inconsistent and didn’t play his best games ever in NFC championship games, but he got you there!  I still do not understand how someone can complain about making 5 NFC championship games.  It’s like when the Detroit Pistons fans complained they did not make it to the NBA Finals after their 6^th straight trip to the Conference Finals and demanded a team shakeup.  Well Eagles and Pistons, welcome to mediocrity.

Draft Picks: Brandon Graham.  Meh, but I do think he will be better than Derrick Morgan, the 16^th pick.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers: 12-4

I’m all aboard the Packers bandwaggon.  Aaron Rodgers is going to be awesome.  He could win the  MVP.  I like Ryan Grant and all of their receivers.  Their defense was okay last year, but they could have Houston Texans syndrome: not able to make the key stop.  That’ll keep them from going to the Super Bowl.

Draft Picks: Bryan Bulaga.  Great pick.  They need line help.

Minnesota Vikings: 10-6

Too many questions going into this season.  Favre’s ankle, Harvin’s migraines, no Sidney Rice (still shocks me that he’s good now), Peterson’s fumbles, rookie backup RB, and most importantly Favre is one year older.  I do love Peterson and think he’ll have a bounceback year, so maybe I’ll change their win total from 9 to 10…

Draft Picks: Chris Cook (don’t know him), Toby Gerhart.  Both  2^nd round picks.  I like Gerhart, but they are going to seriously regret trading Jahvid Best to the Lions.

Chicago Bears: 7-9

Decent team.  Nothing to put them over the top.  Julius Peppers is a good player, but players switching teams never seems to work.  I don’t give the Bears much of a chance.

Draft Picks: No pick until the 3^rd round.  Awful.

Detroit Lions: 6-10

THE TEAM OF THE FUTURE.  All right, that’s a little ballsy, but I do think the Lions are finally on the right track.  I love their core of young players: Jahvid Best, Matt Stafford, Ndamukong Suh, Calvin Johnson, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Brandon Pettigrew.  Fun fact: CC Brown is their starting Safety.  Maybe I should drop them down 2 or 3 wins…

Draft Picks: Ndamukong Suh, Jahvid Best.  A+++++.  That is a draft championships are made of.  Suh is going to be a freaking beast, and Jahvid Best is LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Brian Westbrook, Darren Sproles, and Chris Johnson reincarnate.

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: 12-4

Dominance.  My NFC Super Bowl representative.  I backed them all last year, and I have no reason to change now.  The most telling thing about the Saints’ season last year is that they   They have a ridiculous number of weapons around Drew Brees.  I can’t see anyone nocking them off.  Also, my big pick for the Saints: THE YEAR OF REGGIE BUSH.  Huge playmaker, and it’s finally going to show.

Draft Picks: Charles Brown.  Don’t know him.

Atlanta Falcons: 10-6

I like Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White.  That is pretty much my only reasoning.

Draft Picks: Sean Weatherspoon.  Meh, fast linebacker I guess.  I don’t see him doing anything special.

Carolina Panthers: 7-9

Good running game.  Bad quarterback (I think).  Don’t know much about their defense.  I guess this is pretty much a shot in  the dark.

Draft Picks: I HATE JIMMY CLAUSEN.  I hope he sucks and ruins this franchise. 

The worst thing a team can do is draft a quarterback because they think he’s a “good value.”  Here’s the thing with quarterbacks: you only get 1, so you have to make it count.  When teams pick mediocre talent quarterbacks, they are stuck with them for years while the QBs show some good things, some bad things, but nothing special.  Next thing you know, you’re stuck with JP Lossman and Trent Edwards and haven’t had a winning season since 2004.

Other examples of mediocre QBs who have killed teams for years by showing just a glimmer of hope: Jason Campbell, Brodie Croyle, Kyle Boller, David Garrard, Alex Smith, David Carr, and Rex Grossman (though he did go to a SB).  This list will soon include Jimmy Clausen, Matt Leinart, Josh Freeman, and Chad Henne.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 3-13

My god this team is awful.  Do they have any redeeming qualities?  Maybe the fact that Josh Freeman is young, but  my theory above just proves that he’ll be bad for them in the long run.

Draft Picks: Gerald McCoy.  I love this pick.  Gotta represent my OU homeboy.

NFC West

This worst division in football

San Francisco 49ers: 8-8

That’s right.  I have the 49ers winning the division at 8-8.  The 49ers are the ultimate mediocre team with Alex Smith as their QB.  They also have the Texans syndrom of not being able to make the big play.  Expect them to lose a lot of close games.

Arizona: 6-10

The Matt Leinart/Derek Anderson experiment is going to fail miserably, and they are going to miss Anquan Boldin.  Back to the days of old for the Cardinals.

Draft Picks: Dan Williams.  Fat guy, not a big fan.

St. Louis Rams: 3-13

Draft Picks: I love Sam Bradford.  He looked like a beast in the 2^nd half of the preseason, and I think he’s going to be a star.  I’ve been thinking he would be an NFL star ever since I saw him play against Miami in his first big start my freshman year.  I can’t wait to watch him.

Seattle Seahawks: 3-13

Awful team.  Enough said.

Draft Picks: Russel Okung.  Good, solid pick.  I get the feeling he may be better than Trent Williams.

East Coast Bias

Let's play a game of pitcher comparison:

Pitcher A: 185IP, 2.97ERA, 1.22WHIP
Pitcher B: 202IP, 3.02ERA, 1.20WHIP

Pretty similar right? It's tough to say which pitcher is having the better season. Except that Pitcher A is Brett Myers and Pitcher B is C.C. Sabathia. I understand that CC faces tougher lineups in the American League, but the fact that he will probably win the Cy Young award, while Myers pitches in obscurity in Houston, is a testament to East Coast bias, the media's obsession with the Yankees, and on the flip side the media's ignoring of smaller market teams like Houston. The media constructs images of who the elite players are and do not focus enough on actual production.